In 2022, global greenhouse gas emissions reached a new record of 57.4 gigatons of CO2 equivalent, according to the United Nations Environment Programme's Emissions Gap Report 2023. About two thirds of emissions comprised CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Except transportation, emissions from all major sectors have rebounded since the pandemic and now exceed 2019 levels. The energy sector, responsible for 86 per cent of global CO2 emissions, remains the largest contributor, driven by the expansion of coal- and gas-fired power generation. Governments plan to produce around 110 per cent more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

Keeping warming to 1.5°C calls for a 42 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, requiring an 8.7 per cent annual decline. For a 2°C limit, a 28 per cent drop by 2030 is necessary or a 5.3 per cent annual decrease. The only comparable fall was by 4.7 per cent during the pandemic from 2019 to 2020.

Current national policies set the world on track for warming of 3°C. NDCs lower this to 2.5°C, while all net-zero pledges would put warming at 2°C, although these pledges are highly uncertain. There is currently only a 14 per cent chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C, underscoring the urgency of immediate, accelerated action to significantly cut emissions this decade.

The world continues to shatter temperature records. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record, with global average temperatures soaring to approximately 1.45°C above pre-industrial levels. The 10 warmest years in the 174 years with records have all occurred during the last decade. Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, major floods, droughts, wildfires and tropical cyclones, have disrupted the lives of millions of people and caused billions of dollars in economic losses.

As of June 2024, a WMO climate update underscored an 80 per cent likelihood of at least one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C from 2024 to 2028. In 2015, the probability for such a temperature spike was near zero. The global mean near-surface temperature for each year from 2024 to 2028 is predicted to be 1.1°C to 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline. At least one of the next five years will likely surpass 2023 as the warmest on record.

Fossil fuel subsidies reached a record high of $1.53 trillion in 2022, driven by rising energy prices post-pandemic and the impact of the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted global energy markets. The increase widened the gap between consumer prices and actual energy costs, prompting many governments to introduce support measures to shield industries and populations from inflation. Public funds shoring up the production and consumption of oil, coal and gas more than doubled between 2021 and 2022, and more than tripled from their 2015 levels, reversing progress made between 2012 and 2020 and hindering the net-zero transition.

All regions saw higher subsidies between 2021 and 2022, with the highest in Europe and Northern America ($455 billion), followed by Northern Africa and Western Asia ($327 billion) and Central and Southern Asia ($322 billion). By artificially lowering fossil fuel prices, subsidies harm the competitiveness of cleaner energy sources and hinder the low-carbon transition. They strain national budgets, especially in countries facing fiscal constraints and high debt levels. Although intended to aid vulnerable households, subsidies often disproportionately benefit wealthier people, who consume more energy than lower-income households, as well as carbon-intensive companies. Despite numerous national, regional and global pledges to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, data show minimal action.