THIRD SEMINAR ON EARLY WARNING AND BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS
17-19 November 2010, Moscow, Russian Federation
List of Documents
DOCUMENTATION FOR THE SEMINAR FILE SIZE 1 Agenda 37 KB 1a Detailed Agenda of Break-out Sessions 27 KB 2 List of documents ASP 4 Concept note 25 KB 5 Final report 78 KB PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS FOR THE SEMINAR FILE SIZE SESSION 1: Opening S1.4 Opening Remark (Paul Cheung, United Nations Statistics Division) 32 KB S1.8 Recent European Experience with Macroeconomic Monitoring and Surveillance (Pieter Everaers, Eurostat) 101 KB P1.8 Recent European Experience with Macroeconomic Monitoring and Surveillance (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) PPT 884 KB P1.9 Recent Developments in Macroeconomic Monitoring (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 107 KB P1.10 Development of a Business Cycle Clock in Korea PPT 2003 KB SESSION 2: Flash GDP P2.1 Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) PPT 825 KB S2.2 Flash Estimates of GDP (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) 114 KB P2.2 Flash Estimates of GDP (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) PPT 866 KB S2.3 Some Issues of GDP Estimation and Forecasting (Gennady Kuranov, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation) 92 KB P2.4 Flash GDP (Vladimir Popov, United Nations Development Policy Analysis Division) PPT 217 KB S2.5 Measurement of Flash Indicator of Macroeconomic Inflation (Alexey Ponomarenko, Higher School of Economics, Russia) 40 KB P2.5 Flash indicator of macroecnomic inflation - CPI or flash GDP daflator? (Alexey Ponomarenko, Higher School of Economics, Russia) PPT 144 KB S2.7 Quarterly GDP Estimation in China (Wei Yuanyuan, National Bureau of Statistics of China) 210 KB S2.8 Developing Early Warning Indicators in Oman 210 KB SESSION 3: Composite indicators P3.2 Banking crises and recessions: What can leading indicators tell us? (Martin Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, United Kingdom) PPT 496 KB S3.3 Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System? (Kajal Lahiri and Wenxiong Yao, University at Albany-SUNY) 550 KB P3.3 Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System? (Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany-SUNY) PPT 2198 KB P3.4 Composite indicators (Gian Luigi Mazzi, Eurostat) PPT 2039 KB S3.5 New Tools for Tracking the Mexican Business Cycle (Yuriko Yabuta, National Institute of Statistics and Geography Mexico) 295 KB S3.6 Russian Cyclical Indicators: Their Usefulness in 'Real Time' (Sergey Smirnov, Higher Scool of Economics, Russia) 432 KB S3.7 Construction of a Composite Leading Indicator for India (T.Rajeswari, Central Statistical Office India) 137 KB P3.8 Early Warning Indicators to Predict Financial Crises (Gert Schnabel, Bank for International Settlements) PPT 533 KB S3.8.Bk1 Background document: Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises 533 KB SESSION 4: Tendency Surveys P4.1 Working Group on Tendency Surveys - Overview of Programme (Ralf Becker, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 168 KB S4.2 Harmonized Business and Consumer Surveys: An Overview (Gyorgy Gyomai, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) 43 KB S4.3 Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise? (Silvia Lui, James Mitchell and Martin Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, United Kingdom) 313 KB P4.3 Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise? (Silvia Lui, James Mitchell and Martin Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, United Kingdom) PPT 642 KB S4.4 The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates (Michael Graff and Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF, Switzerland) 184 KB P4.4 The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates (Michael Graff and Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF, Switzerland) PPT 1684 KB P4.5 Tendency Surveys (Teck Wong Soon, Singapore) PPT 110 KB P4.6 Practice of Business Tendency Surveys In Russia: Methodology Aspects and Possibilities for Early Warning of Economic Activity Changes (Georgij Ostapkovich, Higher Scool of Economics, Moscow, Russia) PPT 597 KB S4.7 The Introduction on Business Climate Survey in China (Shouguo Hou, National Bureau of Statistics of China) 132 KB S4.8 Research Study of Business Cycle and Early Warning Indicators for the Economy of Hong Kong (Sharon Ng, Eddie Kwok and Winnie Tam, Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong, China) 194 KB P4.9 Construction of Cyclical Indicators for Ukraine on the BTS Basis (Maryna Pugachova, Statistics Ukraine) PPT 425 KB S4.Bk1 Business Tendency Surveys - A Handbook (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) 3799 KB S4.Bk2 General Principles Underlying the Harmonised Business and Consumer Surveys (Olivier Biau, Eurostat) 195 KB SESSION 5: Data template and analytical indicators S5.1 Overview of Programme of Working Group on Data Template and Analytical Indicators (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division) 47 KB P5.1 Overview of Programme of Working Group on Data Template and Analytical Indicators (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 226 KB S5.1.Bk1 Background document: Data Template of High Frequency Indicators 374 KB P5.2 Economic and Financial Statistics and Indicators for Multilateral Surveillance - PEEIs, PGIs and International Data Templates (Werner Bier, European Central Bank) PPT 112 KB S5.3 Cyclical Indicators for the United States (Carol E. Moylan, Bureau of Economic Analysis) 97 KB P5.3 Cyclical Indicators for the United States (Carol E. Moylan, Bureau of Economic Analysis) PPT 392 KB P5.4 Data Template and analytical indicators (Eduardo Nunes, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) PPT 2196 KB S5.5 Development of Data Hubs for High Frequency Indicators (N.Eagambaram, Central Statistics Office, India) 103 KB S5.6 Data Hub - Some Comments from Brazil (Sidnéia Reis Cardoso and Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) 27 KB S5.7 Development of National Central Data Hub: The Case of Korea (Chanil Seo, Statistics Korea) 631 KB SESSION 6: Communication and dissemination S6.1 Dissemination and Communication Standards and Issues: State of the Art in the UNECE Region (Steven Vale, United Nations Economic Commission of Europe) 100 KB P6.1 Dissemination and Communication Standards and Issues: State of the Art in the UNECE Region (Steven Vale, United Nations Economic Commission of Europe) PPT 776 KB S6.2 Turning Statistics into Information: Indicator Sets and Visualizations (Floris van Ruth and Edwin de Jonge, Statistics Netherlands) 366 KB P6.2 Letting the data speak: Statistical storytelling. Indicator sets and Visualisations (Floris van Ruth and Edwin de Jonge, Statistics Netherlands) PPT 1593 KB P6.3 Communication and Dissemination (Geert Bruinooge, Statistics Netherlands) PPT 115 KB S6.5 The Chilean Experience Regarding Communication and Dissemination Strategies for Short-term Official Statistics (María Eugenia Oliden, National Statistical Institute of Chile) 99 KB S6.6 Indonesian Experience in Communication and Dissemination Strategies for Short Term Official Statistics (Kecuk Suhariyanto, Statistics Indonesia) 232 KB P6.6 Indonesian Experience in Communication and Dissemination Strategies for Short Term Official Statistics (Kecuk Suhariyanto, Statistics Indonesia) PPT 1469 KB S6.9 Communication and Dissemination for Short Term Statistics in Morocco: An Ongoing Evolving System (High Commission of Planning Morocco) 119 KB SESSION 7: Break-out sessions SESSION 7.1: Flash GDP Estimates P7.1.1 Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (1) (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) PPT 829 KB P7.1.2 Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (2) (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) PPT 831 KB P7.1.3 Rapid Estimates: A Dashboard for Short-term Economic Developments (Kees Zeelenberg, Statistics Netherlands) PPT 484 KB SESSION 7.2: Composite Indicators S7.2.1 Relevancy and Utility of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite Indicators (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division) 35 KB P7.2.1 The Practical Utility for Official Statisticians of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite indicators (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 143 KB P7.2.4 Composite Estimators, Data Related Issues (Frank van de Pol, Jan van den Brakel, Jan de Haan, Pim Ouwehand, Julian Chow) PPT 96 KB P7.2.6 Indicators to Measure Cyclical Movements (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 116 KB S7.2.10 Global Assessment on Business Cycle Composite Indicators - Draft (Julian Chow, United Nationa Statistics Division) 47 KB P7.2.10 Draft Questionnaire for the Global Assessment on Business Cycle Composite Indicators (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 279 KB S7.2.Bk1 Background document: Outline of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite Indicators 29 KB S7.2.Bk2 Background document: Annotated outline of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite Indicators 158 KB P7.2.Bk2 Background presentation: Annotated outline of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite Indicators PPT 821 KB SESSION 7.3: Tendency Surveys S7.3.1. Global Assessment on Tendency Surveys 416 KB P7.3.1. Global Assessment on Tendency Surveys (Paul Hanna, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 1773 KB S7.3.2. Relevancy and Utility of the Handbook on Tendency Surveys 48 KB S7.3.3. Handbook on Harmonised System of Tendency Surveys - Table of Content 12 KB P7.3.4. Mainstreaming Data and Composite Indicators From Tendency Survey as Official Statistics (Gian Paolo Oneto, ISTAT) PPT 248 KB P7.3.5. Flash Indicator for the Business Sentiment (Kaisa Ben Daher, Statistics Sweden) PPT 706 KB P7.3.6. Agriculture Tendency Index in Indonesia: Progress and Challenges (Kecuk Suhariyanto, Statistics Indonesia) PPT 1506 KB P7.3.7. BTS in the Agricultural Sector in Ukraine (Maryna Pugachova, State Statistics Committee, Ukraine) PPT 164 KB P7.3.8. The Potential of Sentiment Indicators and Business Surveys in Tracing Crisis Economic Development - Russian Lessons (Sergey Tsukhlo, Gaidar Institute for the Economic Policy, Russia) PPT 69 KB P7.3.9. Tendency Surveys Terminology (Rosa Ruggeri Cannata, Eurostat) PPT 585 KB P7.3.10. Future Research Issues (Rosa Ruggeri Cannata, Eurostat) PPT 649 KB S7.3.Bk1 Background document: Economic Sentiment Shocks and Fluctuations in Real Activity in the Euro Area 214 KB S7.3.Bk2 Background document: Frequency Domain Analysis of Consumer Confidence, Industrial Production and Retail Sales for Selected European Countries 147 KB S7.3.Bk3 Background document: Understanding the Global Trade Downturn and Recovery 137 KB S7.3.Bk4 Background document: Euro Area GDP Forecasting Using Large Survey Datasets: A Random Forest Approach 179 KB S7.3.Bk5 Background document: Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys 170 KB SESSION 7.4: Data Template and Analytical Indicators S7.4.2. The proposed core set of economic statistics for Asia and the Pacific and its comparison with other data templates (Artur Andrysiak, Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific) 204 KB P7.4.2. The proposed core set of economic statistics for Asia and the Pacific (Artur Andrysiak, Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific) PPT 634 KB P7.4.3 Strategic Indicators for Industrial Statistics (Shyam Upadhyaya, UNIDO) PPT 532 KB P7.4.8 Reference Metadata for Data Template (Ales Capek, Eurostat) PPT 571 KB SESSION 8: Summary of working group discussions P8.1. Organisation of Work for Session 8 Reports of Working Groups (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 89 KB P8.2. Report on the Break-out Session on Rapid Estimates (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat) PPT 843 KB P8.4. Report on the Break-out Session on Tendency Surveys (Gian Paolo Oneto, ISTAT) PPT 119 KB P8.5. Report on the Break-out Session on Data Template and Analytical Indicators (Ales Capek, Eurostat) PPT 560 KB SESSION 9: Formulation of final conclusions P9.1. Organisation of Work for Session 9 Strategy and Roadmap (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division) PPT 85 KB SESSION 10: Closing Session SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION AND COUNTRY PRACTICES FILE SIZE Bk1 The Leading Economic Indicator System (LEIS) in the Philippines (Romulo A. Virola, Regina S. Reyes and Florande S. Polistico, National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines) 42 KB Bk2 Expectations Surveys in the Philippine Statistical System (Romulo A. Virola and Candido J. Astrologo, Jr., National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines) 1258 KB