ABS Policy on Population Projections

Purpose

1 Population projections are estimates of future populations based on assumptions of demographic trends. They are illustrations of the population growth which would occur if certain selected assumptions about such trends were realised.

2 The ABS publishes population projections at the part of State (capital city/balance of State), State/Territory and national levels of aggregation as a standard statistical output to satisfy the needs of both the Government and the community, and, because they are a consistent set of projections for each State and Territory, to serve as a framework and a point of departure for other organisations and individuals working in this field. Under circumstances outlined below ABS is also prepared to publish projections for areas smaller than part of state.

3 The ABS also produces projections for all geographical areas (eg local government areas, postcode areas) where clients agree to the assumptions and to meet the costs involved.

Policy

4 The following policies apply to the compilation and publication of population projections:

a) The ABS will compile and publish on a regular basis, a consistent set of Australian, State/Territory and part of State population projections for general government and community use.

b) Compilations of population projections may be provided to clients based on a range of assumptions offered to, or by, clients with or without ABS advice on those assumptions. The cost of the ABS service will be met by the client.

c) The provision of compilations of client-specific projections for all geographic levels will be on the condition that client responsibility for the assumptions is acknowledged whenever they are used.

d) Where State/Territory governments continue to take responsibility for sub-State population projections, the ABS will support this work by providing statistical advice in the development of projection assumptions and by being available to undertake the projections according to assumptions agreed to by State/Territory Governments.

e) The ABS will consider publishing, possibly jointly with the relevant Government, sub-part of State population projections for a State/Territory either because that State/Territory Government has invited such involvement or because other demand is unsatisfied, provided:

-- the relevant Regional Director has arranged guaranteed access to State/Territory Government planning parameters;

-- the State/Territory Government identifies with the assumptions made;

-- such identification is made explicit in the ABS publication; and

-- the projections are not subject to 'veto' or amendment by State/Territory Government ministers.

f) Any sub-State projections published by the ABS should:

-- when aggregated to the State level be within the boundaries of ABS projections last published for the State/Territory; and

-- involve an indication of the variability inherent in projections to encourage an understanding of the assumptions behind the projections, possibly by publishing at least two projections at the same time for the areas involved.