Using the Serbian Composite Index of the Economic Activity for Flash Estimates of the Real Growth of the Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Rapid Estimates and Flash Estimates








The Serbian composite index of the economic activity presents weighted monthly dynamics in industry, construction, trade, transport and telecommunication and other services. Based on its trends, significant information about the monthly dynamics of the economic activity is obtained. However, in order to be used to evaluate quarterly GDP, the aspects of the economic activity which are not covered by it due to lack of adequate monthly indicators, should also be included in the calculation. Consequently, this paper describes the methodological basis of the calculation of so-called adjusted quarterly composite index. It represents a particular link between the monthly composite index of the economic activity and the sections not covered by it, but in quarterly periodicity. In this way adjusted quarterly composite index of economic activity includes three components: three-month average of monthly composite indices of economic activity, indicator of quarterly economic activity in the section of Agriculture, hunting and forestry and indicator of net taxes’ movements quarterly. This connection makes possible the use of the adjusted composite index for flash estimates of the real growth of quarterly GDP 30 days after the end of the referent quarter. This way, by calculating at the same time the adjusted quarterly composite index of the economic activity and the monthly composite index, it is possible to obtain a complete picture of national economy trends. 


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