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Symposium on Global Review
of 2000 Round of
Population and Housing
Censuses:
Mid-Decade
Assessment and Future Prospects
Statistics
Division
Department
of Economic and Social Affairs
United
Nations Secretariat
New
York, 7-10 August 2001
Census taking in countries with small
populations:
Limitations and Potentials*
Frank Eelens **
(Netherlands
Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)
Monique Plaza-Maduro **
(Central Bureau of
Statistics - Aruba)
1.
At
the turn of the millennium, 76 countries had a population of less than one
million. Out of this group, 28 had a population between 100,000 and 500,000,
while 39 countries had a population of less than 100,000 (United Nations,
1999). These countries vary in terms of social and economic development,
population composition and distribution as well as of environmental conditions.
2.
The
steps for taking a census in a country with a small population are basically
the same as in a country with a large population. Through an integrated
programme of data collection and compilation, population and housing statistics
are generated for economic and social planning. However, the circumstances
under which a census of a small population is taken are often quite different
from those in larger populations. The mere size of the population sets certain
limitations, but it also creates some interesting possibilities. We shall explore
some of these limitations and possibilities by elaborating on each of the six
issues that the Symposium will focus on. These are:
3.
For
this paper, we relied on our own experiences concerning the 1991 and 2000
population and housing censuses of Aruba as well as on other censuses in small
countries and regions. Aruba has a population of 90,000.
4.
Whatever
the size of the population, a number of activities remain the same. For
instance, the size of a country’s population does not influence the workload
involved in the drafting of questionnaires and training manuals, developing the
legal frame, computer programming and tabulation. An important characteristic
of census taking in small countries is that the entire operation is organized
by very few people, sometimes not more than three or four. This means that
specialization is almost non-existent. On Aruba, for instance, a census officer
might be mapping in the morning, have a meeting with a publicity agent in the
early afternoon and put the finishing touches to editing programs later that
day.
5.
Having
a small staff has a management advantage. Each census officer has a much better
overview of the operation. Possible flaws and weaknesses in the census
operation and data might be more easily recognizable and dealt with. On the
other hand, census officers are no specialists in each aspect of the operation.
This fact might bring the quality of each aspect in which the officer is
involved into question. On Aruba, this risk was reduced by bringing in external
specialists for short periods to assist in those fields where internal
expertise was lacking. This was the
case in the field of automatic data processing and, to a lesser extent, in the
case of mapping.
6.
Another
option is that a group of countries joins forces and rounds up its specific
expertise. During the 1990 round of censuses, a group of countries of the
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) centrally coordinated the preparation and
processing of its censuses (UN ECLAC/CDDC, 1998). In the current round, the
same countries are following this approach once again. There is no doubt that
members benefit from such collaboration. However, a centralized approach
between a group of countries certainly involves some risks. Red tape and
financial constraints may affect the overall preparation; a delay in one
country might slow down operations in all the others. For instance, if scanning
equipment is shared, a deceleration in the processing in one country has a
direct effect on the timing of data processing in the others.
7.
Many
small countries have only limited research capacities. This means that social
and economic surveys are held only periodically. Many organizations consider a
census a golden opportunity to provide answers to numerous questions. On Aruba,
a staff member of a department proposed to include 30 specific questions for
the 1991 census. All his questions were valid and well thought-out. This man
was therefore most disappointed when only two of his questions made it into the
questionnaire.
8.
A
census is often the only source of valuable information in a small country, and
this might lead to serious pressure on the census staff to include certain
questions in the questionnaire. The fact that professional, political and
social networks are small may further increase this pressure.
9.
Census
users need not only direct results from a census, but also findings and
recommendations based on the research of census data. Universities,
governmental and private research institutes and non-governmental organizations
(NGOs) take on this role in larger countries, but second-line research
institutes are generally absent in small countries. That is why census data in
small countries may be underutilized.
10.
An
important aspect of the relationship between the census office and the stakeholders
is the supply of timely, reliable and appropriate data. In this, smaller
countries have a possible advantage over larger countries. Because of the
limited number of forms, census results can theoretically be made public
relatively soon after the census is held. On Aruba, the population and housing
census was held 14-21 October 2000. A CD-ROM with 110 selected final tables of
the census was presented to the public in June 2001—eight months after the
census week.
11.
Small
countries have the potential to have better data quality control than larger
countries. During the census on Aruba, census staffers made daily visits to
each of the 55 enumeration centers. Supervisors and controllers in the field
checked every questionnaire for errors. Census staffers could give direct
advice when problems arose and they could get instant feedback on quality
issues. In large countries, census staffers can only dream of such a direct
link between the census office and the individual enumerator.
12.
Small
countries have another advantage in terms of data quality control during the
editing phase. A large and often underestimated quantity of errors is
introduced during the data-entry and coding stages. Even with optical mark
reading and optical character recognition, more than just a few errors are
generally introduced. In small countries, it is much easier to go back to the
census forms and make corrections.
Larger countries have to rely on automatic imputations for that. On
Aruba, census staffers had the forms beside them while editing the data from an
enumeration area. There is no doubt that this has increased the quality of the
final data. Obviously one should not overdo the editing and keep a healthy
balance between accuracy and too much time-consuming correction. There might be
a tendency to treat a census as an accounting operation instead of a counting
operation in a small country.
13.
The
most efficient and effective source of statistics is not directly linked to the
size of a country’s population, but more to the availability and quality of
alternative sources. Current availability of information from administrative
sources and surveys would certainly not allow for abandoning the census on
Aruba. As in many small countries, the overall research capability on Aruba is
rather limited in terms of human resources and financial means.
14.
Again,
because of the size of the population and consequently of the overall control
over the census operation, some other topics could be incorporated within the
census. These topics require a somewhat more sophisticated approach and would
normally be addressed in surveys in larger countries. For instance, by proper
indexing persons in family nuclei and in households, the census on Aruba provided
a very detailed classification of households by type. This was done according
to the number of family nuclei and the relationship between the family nuclei
and the other members of the household. Moreover, the information provided a
detailed classification between conjugal and consensual family nuclei.
15.
New
high-technology techniques should be seriously considered only when their
advantages are abundantly clear and the associated risk of failure is
sufficiently small to be acceptable. Census planners should be aware of
internationally proven technologies and concepts. Equally important, they have
to establish the most appropriate techniques to gather and process the required
information (Dekker, 1996). Planners have to decide at the start of the census
which technologies are appropriate for their country, given the size of the
population, the available knowledge and skills and financial resources. In
recent years, significant progress has been made in the field of scanning and
imaging. Most countries that have adopted automatic data entry use a
combination of Optical Mark Reading (OMR) and Optical Character Recognition
(OCR). In some cases imaging is used to scan text boxes with written
information on education, profession, kind of industry and so forth. If used
properly, optical data entry leads to a reduction in processing time and cost.
16.
If
used solely for data entry of a population census, optical methods are often
not the right choice for small countries for the following reasons:
17.
Should
scanning technology for census processing be introduced in small countries,
then it should form part of a larger plan to use this technology in other
statistical fields as well. In the 2001 population and housing census on Aruba,
it was decided to use OMR/OCR and imaging. This technology is now also used for
other purposes, e.g., the monthly tourism expenditure surveys. By using optical
data entry combined with computer-aided coding, total processing time of the
census was four months shorter than the previous census.
18.
The
decision to work with optical data entry was influenced by several important
considerations. Aruba has a very tight labour market. Good data-entry typists
are hard to find and salaries are relatively high. Although local experience
with digital data entry was limited, expertise from abroad was available
through a cooperation project with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary
Demographic Institute (NIDI). Expertise with sophisticated questionnaire design
and form printing was available in-house.
19.
Transforming
verbal answers into numerical codes is a major, time-consuming activity in most
censuses. In the past, efforts have been made to use computer technology to
facilitate this job, either through automatic coding or through
computer-assisted coding, but any use of automatic or computer-assisted coding
has to be critically examined. As Dekker (1996: 1137) states: “One must remain
skeptical about the application of either computer-assisted coding or automatic
coding in developing countries. Only where difficult-to-code variables are
absent or hierarchical coding schemes for such variables remain shallow, can
the case for computer coding be made”.
20.
Smaller
countries definitely have an advantage over larger countries in this field.
Most of these countries’ economies are far less complex. Many have economies
that are based on two or three main pillars. Consequently, the
difficult-to-code variables are more limited. For instance, it is much easier
to construct a look-up table for the variable “industry” in a small country.
The Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in Aruba has been keeping a register
with all local businesses for years. This file contains the International
Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) code for each establishment and can
easily be linked to the system of computer-assisted coding. On Aruba, the
system was an integral part of the verification stage of the optical data
capturing. Scanned boxes with written information were projected on the screen
of the verifier. The verifier first typed in a few characters of the written
description provided by the enumerator. The system then responded with a list
of possible codes to choose from.
21.
Census
results are traditionally distributed through printed reports. A special report
is made of a group of general tables that have been selected and grouped. Since
the 1990 round of censuses, technology has further developed and more
alternatives are now available for dissemination of census results. The CD-ROM
as a publication medium has many advantages, especially for small countries,
because:
22.
A
population and housing census is the largest administrative undertaking in a
country. Censuses have many spin-offs for statistical offices. They always
provide a great learning experience for all those involved. Knowledge of
administrative, verifying, coding and editing procedures acquired during the
census are a great asset for further research activities. Especially in small
statistical offices, where a large proportion of the staff is involved in the
project, a census may have a profound effect on its institutional development.
23.
It
is important for future reference that all census material is stored, both
physically and in digital format. All letters, notes, computer programs,
training manuals, coding lists, tables and reports should be put on CD-ROMs.
Experience shows that it is definitely worthwhile to make an index of all
materials stored. Ten years is a long time to remember cryptic file names!
24.
Systems
used during the census should be updated on a regular basis, the most important
being coding lists and census maps. In small countries, updating coding lists
can be done on a regular basis through surveys. On Aruba, new occupation and
industry names, together with their respective codes, are added to the list
whenever a labour force survey is held. At the next census, these coding
systems are ready for use and priorities can be given to other issues. As we
stated before, small countries do not have such diversified markets as large
countries; this facilitates updating code lists.
25.
The
data contents of a population census and their utility in the preparation of
development plans will depend largely on the consistency and the compatibility
of the definitions and concepts used (Maitra, 1996). In a small country like
Aruba, the same staff is involved in the preparation of a census as well as in
the coordination of survey research. This facilitates the continuity of use of
concepts and definitions during the intercensal period.
26.
At
the onset of the census project on Aruba, no maps were available. No other
department had updated digital maps. Therefore, the CBS decided to develop its
own census cartography, which resulted in one of the most extensive projects of
the Aruba Census 2000. In the period July-October 1999, CBS staffers completed
a first round of fieldwork. The information gathered in the field was used to
update the digital maps created by the Department of Land, Surveying and Land
Registration in 1990 and the aerial photographs taken in 1998. Additional
information on new housing projects and roads was provided by the Department of
Public Works. Four months prior to the census a second round of fieldwork to
update census maps was completed. Based on these digital maps and the
information gathered in the field, a Geographical Information System (GIS) was
created. Census enumeration areas and districts were added as different layers
to the GIS. The GIS played a key role during the census planning, the field
operation, the data processing and the final analysis. Little by little, this
system grew into a full-fledged geographical information system. Our GIS is now
drawing a lot of attention from other governmental departments as well as from
the private sector.
27.
Not
many small countries in the Caribbean have been able to produce their own
GIS. They have not been able to fully
update their census mapping for the 2000 round of censuses. The Aruba
experience teaches that it is possible for a small statistical office to
develop its own GIS system. To be successful, however, one needs to stick to
some basic principles:
28.
There
are numerous methods to estimate the coverage of censuses. Demographic
analysis, administrative sources and post-enumeration surveys may all be used
to examine the thoroughness of a census.
The method or combination of methods that works best in a particular
country depends on the availability of information and resources and is
independent of the country’s size or population. On Aruba, the census team
mainly used administrative sources to estimate the degree of non-coverage and
special forms to monitor progress during fieldwork.
29.
A
population census is always an adventure for those involved. Censuses in large
countries are normally executed by a large staff. The workload is divided along
regional and topical lines. In small countries, census planners have to be able
to cover all the diverse aspects of a census with just a small staff. This
forces the staff to be more generalists than specialists. As we saw, this may
be a risk for the quality of the census operation.
30.
Ten
years is a long time in any organization.
In that time, people are promoted, retire, find other jobs or simply
think that one census was enough. That is why a census team often has new
members—people who have never been involved in a census before. Consequently,
certain skills might be lacking at the onset of a census operation, but these
problems might be solved by collaboration, external technical assistance and
training. Training is the most obvious of all: changing team members into
specialists in the various aspects of census taking will increase the overall
quality of the project. Because of the fact that specific know-how might not be
available in small countries, training—sometimes abroad—has to be provided. For
specific lack of expertise, assistance from abroad might be the answer. For
instance, the introduction of new technology may require a foreign expert.
Finally, collaboration between countries is an ideal means to overcome
weaknesses in each of the individual members. The collaboration between the
member states of CARICOM to coordinate their efforts is a typical example of
how to overcome problems created by size.
31.
In
some ways, small size is a problem in censuses, but in other ways, it is a
blessing. Throughout the various stages of the census, easy quality control can
take place in a small operation. Coding
becomes less of a quality risk and editing can be done more profoundly.
Training of field staff can be given by the census team itself and field
control can be more intense. Finally, the sense of ownership of the project is
tremendous. There is no better feeling than to get together with your team
members at the end of a successful enumeration and look back on the positive
impact that each of your colleagues has had on every aspect of the entire
operation.
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