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Symposium 2001/41E 6 August 2001
English and Russian
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Symposium on Global Review of 2000
Round of
Population and Housing Censuses:
Mid-Decade Assessment and Future Prospects
Department
of Economic and Social Affairs
United
Nations Secretariat
New York, 7-10 August
2001
Statement from Russian Federation *
Irina Zbarskaya **
CONTENTS
1.
Legislative basis for the census
2.
Enumeration method and trial censuses
4.
Population and housing census questions
7.
Computer-aided processing of census data
10.
Publicity and public relations.
1.
The forthcoming general census of the population of
the Russian Federation is of great significance. It will be the first census to
be held under political and socio-economic conditions that are essentially
different from those of previous censuses in the Soviet period. The subject of
the census will be the substantially different population of the new Russia at
the outset of the third millennium. On the one hand, these changes are largely
the product of the negative features of demographic development accumulated
over a long period (practically the whole of the last century), which have been
exacerbated in recent years by the difficulties resulting from the country’s
transition to a market economy. On the other hand, the abrupt transformation of
the scale and directions of migration after the collapse of the former USSR has
also had a certain influence on the sociodemographic composition of the Russian
population.
2.
The scope and complexity of the problems being
addressed make it essential to have reliable information and, above all, varied
and accurate population data. Censuses were in the past and will continue, in
the foreseeable future, to be the sole source of the multifaceted population
data, which are a vital necessity at the federal and regional levels for the
correct management of practically all spheres of social development and for the
validation, development and implementation of any socio-economic programme.
3.
The series of data obtained during a population
census is of a unique kind. In the first place, this is related to the question
of nationality. As the record of national affiliation no longer appears in new
identity documents of citizens of the Russian Federation (thus entailing a
reduction in the processing of current statistics), the census has become the
sole source of information not only on the numerical strength of a particular
ethnic group, but also on its command of its own language, marital status,
level of education, sources of income, economic activity, occupations,
prospective birth rate and so forth. The importance of such information for
devising an effective nationalities policy in our multinational state is beyond
dispute.
4.
The development of democratic processes in society,
the radical restructuring of the economy, the emergence of new relations in the
federal structure of our state and the absence of a corresponding legal basis
are all factors that made it essential to establish a legislative basis for
issues related to the population census.
5.
The population and housing census recommendations
of the United Nations state that “For census operations to be carried out
effectively, they must be underpinned by appropriate legislation. Without the
sanction of law, the body conducting a census will not be empowered to seek
information and the population will not be obliged to respond to questions.”
The practice of countries with developed forms of democracy and law confirms
the need to adopt such legislation. In the majority of countries, appropriate
laws have been passed strictly regulating, in particular, the responsibility of
the state for maintaining the confidentiality of the information obtained as
well as the obligation of citizens to take an active part in the census.
6.
A draft federal All-Russia Population Census Act
was drawn up for the first time in the legal practice of our country by the
Russian State Statistics Commission. For reasons of a political, legal and
economic nature it was essential to adopt the federal All-Russia Population
Census Act.
7.
The political significance of the Act is that it
has given a legislative character to the problems of the all-Russia population
census as a national statistical project requiring significant financial
resources. Moreover, in establishing a state governed by the rule of law, it is
essential to provide citizens with legal guarantees of the confidentiality of
their personal data gathered in the course of the census, and also to observe
the human rights and freedoms defined by the constitution of the Russian
Federation.
8.
The Act’s legal significance is that it clearly
delimits the powers and spells out the responsibilities of the executive bodies
at the federal level, the subjects of the Russian Federation and local
self-governing bodies in carrying out the preparatory activities, and
performing their functions during the period of the census itself.
9.
Its economic significance is that it enshrines in
law the apportionment of expenditures for the census from funds from the
federal budget, the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation, and
those of local self-governing bodies. The reason for this proposed
apportionment of resources is primarily that, despite the fact that the census
covers the entire nation, the data compiled during it will be widely used for
taking management decisions at all legislative and administrative levels, which
have an equal interest in being informed of its results.
10.
As part of the preparation for the all-Russia
population census, the All‑Russia Conference of Statisticians was held in
November 1995 and was attended by representatives of all interested ministries,
departments and scientific organizations and regional state statistical bodies.
The Conference discussed the programmatic, methodological and organizational
rules for the forthcoming population census and made recommendations which were
later put into effect in the 1997 and 2000 trial censuses.
11.
In February 1997, a trial census was conducted in
four regions of the Russian Federation. It covered a total of 307,000 members
of the sedentary population (0.2 per cent of the total population of the
country), including 223,000 people (73 per cent) in urban settlements and
84,000 (27 per cent) in rural areas. This proportion corresponds to the overall
proportion of the urban and rural population in the Russian Federation as a
whole.
12.
On the basis of the recommendations of the
All-Russia Conference of Statisticians, the Russian State Statistics
Commission, in the course of the trial census, approved two methods of
conducting a census (one whereby members of the population themselves filled in
the survey questionnaires and one whereby members of the public were
interviewed by specially enlisted and trained polling clerks).
13.
To date, we have been unable fully to use the
method requiring members of the public to fill in the forms themselves. One of
the reasons for this is that the public has had no experience in filling in the
proposed questionnaires since the practice in earlier censuses of the Soviet
period and in surveys conducted in the country was based on the method
involving questioning by polling clerks, with which the public is more familiar
(although, for example, in the 1897 census, the methods used in towns involved
the completion of questionnaires by members of the public themselves). However,
we intend, in the future, when conducting selective socio-economic surveys, to begin
using various forms of that method in order to accustom the public gradually to
such interaction. Thus, the interview method, whereby polling clerks make the
rounds of people’s homes and record the answers of respondents on census forms,
is currently the most widely acceptable for use in an overall population
census.
14.
The 2000 trial population census was held in
Moscow, in the Moscow region, and in Vladivostok, in the Primorye territory,
with an overall population coverage of approximately 100,000 people. These two
territories were not selected at random for the second trial census. Each of
them has a complex social and industrial infrastructure and includes a range of
different population categories. All districts have their own characteristics,
which are in many respects typical of the country as a whole.
15.
Each successive population census has its own
features which distinguish it from the earlier ones and which are due, in the
main, to the specific socio-economic conditions in which it is conducted. To a
significant extent, these peculiarities affect the census methodology.
16.
One of the most important methodological
peculiarities of the forthcoming general population census in the Russian
Federation is the change to counting the population only on the basis of the
place of people’s permanent (habitual) residence. Earlier censuses studied two
population categories—permanent residents and people present.
17.
At the same time, practice demonstrates that, both
for research purposes and in everyday activities, it is information on the
permanent population that is most often used, which is why the data from the
most recent national surveys were, in the main, based on the permanent
population. That largely made the census data methodologically comparable with
current statistical data.
18.
In the post-war period most countries of the world
made the changeover to counting the permanent population. The main reason for
this is that data on the permanent population are more constant and less
subject to chance variations than data based on a headcount. Thus, a changeover
to the category of the permanent population in the forthcoming census will
bring us more into line with international practice. In addition, by counting
only one category in the census, and not including people on means of
transport, in hospitals or in hotels, we shall be able to make considerable
financial savings.
19.
In order to define the permanent inhabitants of the
country, a time qualification of one year was established. All persons who have
been in the Russian Federation for a year or more will be recorded as permanent
residents. People leaving the Russian Federation for reasons of work (excluding
those on official travel on behalf of state bodies, such as diplomats or
military personnel), or to study in other countries will not be registered in
the census as being part of the permanent population.
20.
The time criterion of one year was chosen with a
view to reducing the influence of seasonal migration (particularly from
countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States).
21.
The permanent residents of the Russian Federation
will include people travelling abroad to visit relatives or acquaintances, for
medical treatment, on holiday or as tourists. These people will be registered
in the Russian Federation irrespective of the length of their absence from the
country. Moreover, the permanent population will also include seamen on voyages
(at the time when the population is counted). Also counted will be Russian and
foreign citizens and stateless persons who arrived in the country from abroad
to take up permanent residence, and refugees, including those who have not yet
legalized their registration documents. This arrangement corresponds to United
Nations recommendations according to which refugees are recorded in the country
in whose territory they are at the time of the census.
22.
The place of residence in which the persons
surveyed usually reside most of the time will, as a rule, be considered their
permanent residence. This place may not coincide with the address at which the
respondent has been registered—i.e., persons will be enumerated according to
their place of actual residence.
23.
In addition, in conducting the upcoming population
census, there are plans to take into account separately, under an abbreviated
programme, persons who are temporarily situated in a territory of the Russian
Federation and permanently reside beyond its borders. This category relates to
people, regardless of their citizenship, who have come to the Russian
Federation from abroad to study or work for a period of less than one year, for
medical treatment, on holiday or to visit relatives or friends. Taking this
category into account will make it possible, in our opinion, to estimate the
overall number of persons in the country’s territory on the date of the census
and also, which is very important, to use this information in estimating the
extent of illegal migration.
24.
The following persons will not be subject to the
census:
• Foreign nationals working in diplomatic and other missions of
their states and foreign military personnel and their family members;
• Foreign nationals working in the territory of the Russian
Federation in the offices of international organizations;
• Foreign nationals who are members of government delegations
or the legislative bodies of their states;
• Russian nationals who reside permanently abroad; and
• Russian nationals who have gone abroad to work under contract
for Russian or foreign firms or to study for a period of more than one year.
25.
In accordance with the United Nations
recommendations, households will be used as units of observation in the
forthcoming all-Russia population census for the first time in national
practice. The use of households as units of observation was approved for 5 per
cent of the 1994 microcensus, when 2.6 million households were surveyed.
Households were also selected as units of observation in the 1997 and 2000
trial censuses.
26.
The changeover in future census to taking account
of households will not deprive us of the possibility of obtaining through them
extensive information on families, which will be developed as a combination of
various characteristics (composition, number of children, sources of income,
level of education, housing conditions and others). This information will make
it possible to evaluate the prospects for developing the contemporary Russian
family and thereby prospects for normalizing to a certain degree the
reproduction of the country’s population. It will be the basis for determining
priority areas in the family and socio-demographic policy at both the federal
and regional levels.
27.
In addition, the changeover to registering
households in the Russian population censuses and surveys will ensure the
possibility of accurate international comparisons.
28.
The census programme, that is, the list of specific
issues and questions on which the population will be surveyed, is one of the
most important methodological aspects.
29.
In developing the draft 2002 all-Russia population
census programme, account was taken of changes that have occurred in society,
the need to obtain information, and the need to ensure maximum comparability of
the results of the forthcoming census with data from previous population
censuses and to adapt the census questions to the international
recommendations.
30.
The all-Russia population census programme has now
been approved by the government of the Russian Federation.
A. Questions on housing conditions:
1. Characteristics of the dwelling:
• Type of dwelling,
• Period of construction of the building,
• Size of the individual house or apartment,
• General number of residential rooms in the
individual house or apartment,
• Size of the living space in the individual
house or apartment and
• Types of amenities in the dwelling.
2. Characteristics of the housing conditions of
each household residing in an individual house, separate apartment or communal
apartment:
• Number of residential rooms occupied and
• Size of living space.
B. Complete observation programme (under
which the entire population will be canvassed):
• Relationship to the person registered
first in the household,
• Gender,
• Date of birth,
• Marital status,
• Place of birth,
• Citizenship,
• Nationality (nation) or ethnic group,
• Training in an educational institution,
• Children’s attendance in pre-school
institutions,
• Education,
• Native language,
• Fluency in Russian,
• Other language in which the person
surveyed is fluent,
• All means of subsistence,
• Work or remunerative employment between 2
and 8 October 2002 and
• Occupational position.
C. Selective observation programme (under
which 25 per cent of the population will be canvassed):
• Type of economic activity of the
enterprise (organization, one’s own business) where the persons canvassed
principally work,
• Position or occupation at the principal
place of work,
• Place of work,
• Search for work in the previous month
(for persons 15 to 64 years of age who have not had work or remunerative
employment one week prior to the census),
• Uninterrupted period of residence in the
specific inhabited area and place of residence in January 1989 and
• Number of children born to women (for
women 15 years of age and older).
31.
Twelve of the 16 questions in the comprehensive
census programme practically coincide with those of previous censuses.
Information on these questions will essentially make it possible to determine
the development of data on the composition of the population and to see what
changes have occurred in the population during the intercensal period. The
so-called expensive questions (from the point of view of determining the
results) have basically been included in the selective observation programme.
32.
The programme of the forthcoming population census
differs from the 1989 census programme mainly by virtue of the essentially new
inclusion of the section of questions on employment, which is linked to the
socio-economic changes taking place in the country. The data obtained during
the census will make it possible to determine the structure of the workforce,
the number of unemployed citizens and their social composition and demographic
characteristics. On the basis of this information, it will be possible to break
down the population into the economically active and economically inactive,
which will bring us considerably closer to international standards. This
assumes a rather detailed elaboration of data on the employed population and
its distribution according to types of economic activity and occupations, and
employment situation in combination with various characteristics (age, gender,
education, source of means for subsistence and so forth).
33.
The questions making it possible to determine the
general potential of unemployment together with its sociodemographic
characteristics are of particular importance for adequately assessing the
economic situation in the Russian Federation.
34.
The question concerning citizenship, which
previously was posed only to foreigners, will be new in the draft programme for
the forthcoming census. The inclusion of this question in the draft programme
is linked to the adoption in 1991 of the Citizenship Act. Processing the
replies by the respondents to this question will make it possible for the first
time to obtain information on the number and various characteristics of the
citizens of the Russian Federation and the citizens of other states, both those
permanently residing in our country and those temporarily situated in it, as
well as persons with dual citizenship and those without citizenship.
35.
Obtaining data on the number and sociodemographic
characteristics of persons that do not have Russian citizenship and reside
permanently in the country will make it possible to study a set of very
complicated problems linked to their legal status and will be instrumental in
defining a state policy oriented towards promoting the voluntary integration of
these persons into the political, social and economic life of the Russian
Federation and creating the necessary conditions enabling them to adapt to the
local culture while maintaining their own cultural identity.
36.
The information on Russian citizens will be
necessary in order to study the electorate in preparing for and conducting
elections to legislative bodies at the federal and regional levels.
37.
The transformation of the economic relations in our
country also predetermined changes in the population’s sources of means of
subsistence. The wording of this question and suggested answers to it have
significantly changed in the draft programme for the forthcoming census. The
draft programme reflects the new sources of income which to a greater extent
correspond to the stage in the development of market relations in our country:
interest rates on deposits and securities, income from the renting or leasing
of property, unemployment allowances and others. The census is not designed to
study the levels of income of citizens, although this information is of
considerable interest for research. Surveys conducted have indicated that our
population is still not prepared to answer this question, and including it in
the census programme may to a certain extent elicit a negative reaction on the
part of respondents. At the same time, we plan to consider this subject in
conducting various surveys in the future.
38.
In the question on marital status, the
sub-questions as to whether a marriage is registered or unregistered are new in
the draft programme. This is a very important addition to the traditional
question about marriage, since the data obtained from various sources should be
interrelated and should be comparable by harmonizing concepts and categories in
the programmes of censuses and the current enumeration. The register offices
take into account legally registered marriages and divorces, and previous
censuses recorded the actual marital status (i.e., they also included
unregistered marriages and divorces), which complicated studying the problems
of marriage and the family and analysing their stability.
39.
During the census, all those who at the time of the
census are temporarily in the territory of the Russian Federation and reside
permanently abroad will be surveyed with regard to:
• Purpose of coming to the Russian Federation.
Persons who have come in
order to work will be canvassed about their:
• Gender,
• Date of birth,
• Country of birth,
• Country of permanent residence,
• Citizenship and
• Nationality or ethnic group.
40.
In order to ensure a complete and accurate
enumeration in the 2002 all-Russia population census (avoiding an undercount or
a double count), verification measures will be carried out. Verification
documents will be drawn up during the period in which the population is
canvassed: a verification census sheet, a verification chip and a certificate
on participation in the census.
41.
After the 2002 all-Russia population census is
completed, over a period of five days an instructor-monitor will conduct a
selective (10 per cent) verification survey of dwellings in an enumeration
district in order to verify the completeness and accuracy of the population
count.
42.
In order to assess the completeness and accuracy of
the population count after the 2000 trial population census, an independent
post-census verification survey was carried out. The independent verification
survey dealt with 5 per cent of the population covered by the 2000 trial
census.
43.
Information on all persons (census subjects)
obtained in the 2002 all-Russia population census will not be subject to
disclosure (dissemination) and will be used only by the Russian State
Statistics Commission in order to set up a federal state statistical database
on the population of the Russian Federation.
44.
The census sheets, other documents and material
storage devices containing confidential information on the population will be
subject to a special regime for storage and accessibility.
45.
The census forms to be filled out are two-sided
machine-readable documents. The computer-aided processing of completed census
forms will be carried out at the territorial and federal levels.
46.
The input (scanning) of information from
machine-readable documents, identification, and the formal and logical
verification to prepare information for loading into the centralized database
of the 2002 all-Russia population census will be carried out at the territorial
level (territorial offices of the Russian State Statistics
Commission—inter-territorial cluster centres for data processing).
47.
Primary data will be processed at the federal level
in order to establish the database and final regulation tables. The possibility
of drawing up tables on the basis of non-regulation questions is provided for.
48.
The results of the 2002 all-Russia population
census will be disseminated in official publications of the Russian State
Statistics Commission (statistical thematic compilations, brochures and press
releases in hard copy and technical storage devices) and also through the Internet
and other communication channels.
49.
An approximate estimate of expenditures for
preparing and conducting the 2002 all-Russia population census and processing
its results was approved by the government of the Russian Federation. Federal
budget outlays for carrying out the census will amount to 3.2 billion rubles.
50.
In addition, it is planned that part of the
expenditures will be charged to the budgets of the subjects of the Russian
Federation and local budgets (providing premises, furniture and communication
link-ups for the enumeration and instructor stations, and providing them with
security and transport). According to estimates, the expenditures by the
subjects of the Russian Federation are calculated to amount to approximately
800 million rubles.
51.
Accordingly, the budget expenditures at all levels
for the 2002 all-Russia population census will amount to approximately 4
billion rubles or US$142 million. The cost per person surveyed will not exceed
US$1.
52.
The basic objective of conducting publicity and
public relations work is to inform all inhabitants of the Russian Federation
about the 2002 all-Russia population census, inculcate in them a positive
attitude with regard to the census, encourage participation in it and provide
reliable information.
53.
The following groups have been identified as
targeted audiences for the publicity and public relations work:
• Age groups (children and adolescents, young people, and
middle-aged and elderly persons),
• Social groups (pupils, students, the employed and unemployed
population, population groups with different income levels),
• Inhabitants of large cities, medium-sized and small towns,
settlements and villages and
• Population groups living in difficult-to-reach areas.
54.
In providing information about the 2002 census,
account has been taken of the fact that the Russian Federation is a
multinational state where different religions are practised.
55.
The publicity and public relations work is being
conducted through all the mass media, both at the national and regional levels.
This work is being carried out through measures based on links to the general
public, direct advertising and special projects.
56.
At the beginning of May 2001, the Public Opinion
Fund conducted an all-Russia opinion poll to determine the basic attitudes of
Russians with regard to the all-Russia population census, which will be carried
out in October 2002. The results of the poll indicate that almost half of those
surveyed (45 per cent) first heard of the forthcoming census only during the
opinion poll. Only about one fifth of Russians (22 per cent) know that the
census is to take place in October 2002, and approximately one third (31 per
cent) had heard something about it.
57.
The overwhelming majority of Russians are convinced
about the need to conduct the census—81 per cent of those surveyed are of this
opinion. A total of 7 per cent believe that it is unnecessary to conduct the
census.
58.
A large part of those surveyed (88 per cent) plan
to participate in the census. However, the percentage of those who do not
intend to participate or have not yet decided (12 per cent) is also rather
significant. Nevertheless, in comparison to October 2000, the level of
readiness on the part of Russians to participate in the census has increased
somewhat.
|
October 2000 |
May 2001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
I
shall participate |
75% |
88% |
|
I
shall refuse to participate |
15% |
7% |
|
I find
it difficult to answer |
10% |
5% |
