Symposium 2001/25
20 July 2001 English only
|
Symposium on Global Review of 2000 Round of
Population
and Housing Censuses:
Mid-Decade
Assessment and Future
Prospects
Statistics Division
Department of Economic and Social Affairs
United Nations Secretariat
New York, 7-10 August 2001
Maintaining knowledge of the New Zealand Census *
Frank Nolan **
1.
The population census provides a
cornerstone for the population and social statistics system of a country. It is
often the means for allocation of considerable public funding, especially in
areas such as health, education and social policy. The census can be used for
electoral redistribution.
2.
Maintaining census capability during
intercensal years is important as a risk-management strategy. It can help to
ensure that census information continues to be available to the required
quality standard. The capability is needed both with staff and with
documentation. This paper looks at the particular circumstances of the New
Zealand census, and the operation of the census cycle.
3.
New Zealand's 31st census of
population and dwellings was taken on Tuesday, 6 March 2001. The census is a
statutory requirement under the Statistics Act of 1975. The census is taken
every five years. The 2001 census was conducted using a self-completed
questionnaire that was delivered and collected from every household in the
country. It is completed as a de facto count, recording where people are on
census night.
4.
For the 2001 census, two types of
questionnaires were used: an individual form for every person in the country on
census night, and a separate dwelling form for every dwelling occupied on
census night. The individual questionnaire contained 43 questions covering
topics on demographic and social structures, education, ethnicity and culture,
geography, disability, income and work. The dwelling questionnaire contained 22
questions covering topics on housing, transport and household communications.
The topics were similar to those used in the 1996 census. In addition, both
questionnaires were available in the English language and as a bilingual form
in Maori and English.
5.
The enumeration was carried out by
6,500 field staff, most of whom were employed for a five-week period around
census day to deliver and collect census forms. The field team was supported by
a full public relations programme. This included advertising through all media
channels (with special emphasis given to television), involvement with a range
of community groups, a programme for schools and employing local community
members as staff.
6.
Processing of census questionnaires
started on 27 March. The processing system built on the 1996 developments. The
1996 system consisted of imaging the forms, followed by recognition of mark
boxes and numbers. This was followed with key-entry operators completing work
where the recognition software was unable to code a response. There was
extensive micro-editing, followed by output editing.
7.
For 2001 there have been
technological advances in imaging. The result is that only answer boxes are
retained rather than the whole questionnaire, which reduces the volume of
imaged data by 90 per cent and allows all images to be held on one server rather
than being cut to CD-ROMs. Higher
recognition rates have been achieved and some alphabetic character fields
recognized. Micro-editing is limited, with the main check on the data being
through output editing.
8.
The first provisional count figures,
released on 28 May 2001, gave New Zealand a census night count of 3,792,654
persons and 1,357,983 occupied dwellings. Final count data (on a
usual-residence basis) is planned to be available before the end of December
2001, and full data are expected to be available before the end of February
2002. Data for electoral redistribution is required by 17 September 2001.
9.
Considerable information is publicly
available from the Statistics New Zealand web site. This includes national and
regional counts published through media releases. A series of topic reports
(covering such areas as education, ethnicity, housing and employment) is
produced, consisting of detailed tables. These are both on the web and printed.
Profiles for local authority areas will be produced, along with a set of finer
community profiles. This provides information at a very fine level (slightly
larger than enumerator district) as a return to communities for their
participation in the census.
10.
Three priced products are available.
Statistics New Zealand staff can produce customized information for clients
(generally tables at fine levels or using non-standard geographies).
Researchers may access the anonymized census records in a data laboratory. They
are available from Statistics New Zealand offices but are under strict controls
both on access and on release of information.
11.
A further fine-level tabular product
has been provided in the last two censuses using Space Time Research's
Supermap. For 2001, this will be replaced by a web tabulator using the Beyond
20/20 software.
12.
The 1996 census of population had a
net coverage of 98.8 per cent, as measured by a post-enumeration survey.
13.
The census can be viewed as an
ongoing continuous survey, albeit with a longer periodicity than most ongoing
surveys. The five-yearly cycle in New Zealand means that there are advantages
for maintaining capability compared with countries with a ten-yearly cycle.
However, similar principles should still apply.
14.
The first requirement is to recognize
that, as with any ongoing survey, a key element in all considerations is
consistency. This will be critical in measuring change between survey periods.
So decisions to change census systems, often because of relevance or
technological advance, need to be carefully balanced and managed with regard to
the possible impacts on the results. Change management becomes very important:
What will be the impact of changes on the data? The census does not offer the
possibility of a dual run to measure change due to different design.
15.
The census is often the largest
survey undertaken by a national statistical office. As a consequence, it has a
large budget. This generally means that there is an opportunity for funding
many developments that may not have been otherwise undertaken by the office.
There will also be large budgets for fieldwork, processing and output. Using
this funding across multiple years and following the survey cycle offers the
possibility of rotating staff and so maintaining knowledge of census processes.
16.
Institutional memory can also be
enhanced by having an organizational structure that contains a census division.
This provides a home for maintaining census documentation, administrative
processes (especially planning and finance), staff and unit-record databases
across many census cycles.
17.
A census division is important for
the retention of institutional knowledge. In 1996 Statistics New Zealand
attempted to operate the census across a functional structure using matrix
management[1].
This proved problematic. In development, the major shortfall was having no one
manager accountable for the outcomes. The result was decisions by consensus,
with everyone getting what they wanted. And it was hard for the different
functions to see or focus on the end product.
18.
For the 2001 census Statistics New
Zealand reverted to the subject-matter structure for the census (for the most
part). So the functions were generally under the one division, and there was
accountability in one place for the outcome of the work.
19.
Accountability is important, as the
census can be the largest public undertaking of the statistical office. All
parts need to be carefully managed to ensure that they make a complete whole.
This is especially the case in managing the risk (which is significant) and the
quality.
20.
A key element in structure is
planning. Very early in the census cycle the strategic approach needs to be
agreed upon. This is important, as it sets the direction for the work. This can
be followed by detailed plans setting the milestones for each project, along
with the quality criteria and risk-management strategies.
21.
A key section in this work is the
coordination section. This group provides an overview for planning, finance and
some administration matters. It provides a base for continuity between
censuses, with the responsibility for ensuring that key documentation is
archived and knowledge of the programme plans and budget information retained.
22.
A vital part of the work of the
coordination section is drawing together costing to obtain funding for the next
census. Most of this work is in the intercensal period. There must also be a
detailed understanding of how different activities will use the budget. There
needs to be an ongoing process of managing funding (from government) and
reporting on expenditure against budget. In New Zealand the budget is close to
15 per cent of the statistical office’s budget across five years and about 30
per cent in census year.
23.
A challenge to the capability is
having some census functions contracted outside the statistical office. In New
Zealand there has been an increased use of external contractors for the 2001
census to deliver such non-core elements as maps, call centre and imaging.
24.
Increased use of external contractors
does have the risk of loss of knowledge of the activity. However, good contract
documentation does provide information for subsequent censuses. Critical to
this is high quality and ongoing evaluation of the contracts.
The 2001
census structure is shown below.
(including questionnaire design)
(development of enumeration,
processing and output systems)
25.
The census is a large, high-profile
survey. It often attracts staff who are retained through several census cycles.
This is partly because of the range of work that can be provided, as census staff
are able to work through different census phases.
26.
Following the 1996 census, permanent
staff were placed in one of three sections: content and output, development and
administration. Three temporary sections were established for enumeration,
communication and processing.
27.
While some staff have remained in one
section, others have moved from one work area to another, depending on the
cycle. Staff from content and output
have a key part in first understanding the requirements of data users, and then
delivering those outputs to users. In a five-year cycle this is an ongoing
process. As soon as content development is completed, there is work on
questionnaire design. Then it is time to start developing outputs and
delivering outputs, followed by content development again. So a core of staff
working in these processes retains information critical to the success of the
census.
28.
Staff of the development section have
been used in the temporary operational sections. Staff can move from developing
the enumeration systems in the operation of enumeration (and likewise in
processing and outputs). This can provide good balance, as different phases
require different staff levels on each project.
29.
Following the operational phase of
the census, those staff who have been working in operational areas can return
to the development section to work on improving systems for the next census.
30.
The activity peaks in the census
often mean that there are opportunities for many staff of the statistics office
to become involved in the work of the census. This can spread knowledge within
the organization. The census also provides an opportunity for staff in the
office to increase their skills with temporary work on census projects. There
is also an opportunity to evaluate the skills of temporary staff, who may
subsequently be further employed in the office.
31.
The high profile of the census also
means that most senior staff of the national office are at least involved in
the strategic plans for census. Certainly the members of the executive staff
are often involved in the communication elements during operations around
census day.
32.
The most difficult area in which to
retain knowledge is in the field team. With such a large team it is impossible
to retain them between censuses. However, a number do return from one census to
the next. A number of the field staff do enjoy the short duration and
public-contact work and also participate in other similar projects, like being
election officials.
33.
As a means of assisting in the
development of enumeration processes, a plan has been developed for a small
number of the 2001 enumeration managers to be retained part time to assist in
reviewing the development of the 2006 enumeration process. Further staff will
be established in local communities to assist in local capability-building as
part of a wider government initiative. Both of these moves will assist in
retaining knowledge from one census to another, especially at the local level.
34.
In operational areas census knowledge
can be maintained by making good use of succession planning. There are real
opportunities for staff from one census to move up to a management level in the
next census. This has been important in maintaining quality in both the
enumeration and processing operations.
35.
In New Zealand census documentation
has traditionally been stored in a series of paper-based files. These have
broadly covered administrative matters, enumeration activity, communications or
public relations, questionnaire design, processing systems and outputs.
36.
Since 1996 the census documentation
has for the most part been written electronically and stored in a computer. The
work for the 2001 census used a Lotus Notes database for all planning and
discussion.
37.
Three types of documentation are
useful: plans of what was to be done; commentary on what actually was done; and
an evaluation, especially looking at what should be done the next time. The
best documentation is generally found in the first and last types of documentation.
Often the activities of the day crowd out documenting what is taking place.
38.
A particularly important element of
documentation is the specification for tendered work and that for computer
programs used, especially with survey processing. The tender documents need to
be retained during the life of the tender to ensure that the specifications are
being met. But at the completion of the contract, an evaluation needs to look
at improvements that could be made to the specifications to improve the outcomes.
This documentation can then be used for the next census.
39.
For a census with a long periodicity,
the specification for computer programs (mainly for data processing) may be
more useful than the programs themselves, given the speed of technology
change.
40.
Planning information is vital for
managing a project of the size of a census. Building on documentation from
prior censuses assists in improving the quality of the work and reducing the
risk to the project. Reviewing of documentation of the previous census project
plans is important for understanding critical timing issues. It also assists in
understanding allocation of resources to achieve the required project outputs.
41.
Bringing together the start and end
of the census process is also critical in maintaining good documentation.
Having started by assessing the requirements of those who want to use
information from the census, it is then important to deliver those data back to
those groups. With the time frame for a census, this may mean user requirements
are determined two to three years prior to census day, but output is delivered
a year after. So there is a gap of three to four years.
42.
A key outcome of any survey is the
statistical information that is produced. Part of the process of maintaining
capability is continuing to have access to these data.
43.
Traditionally the data have appeared
in printed publications produced mainly as tables. These publications have
appeared from the time of the first census (1851 in New Zealand). Generally early
publications have considerable geographic detail but are limited in the level
of cross-tabulations. And there is no ability to retabulate the data.
44.
More recent data (since 1976 in New
Zealand) are securely stored as a unit-record database. This now offers the
option of ongoing production to satisfy new needs with old data, often to
measure change over time.
45.
However, there is still an ongoing
requirement to maintain these “archival” data in a medium which can continue to
be used. This may entail conversion into a new software product (in New Zealand
all data were moved from mainframe machines to a client server base in
1998-99).
46.
Equally important is maintaining
knowledge of the metadata. This is true not only for computerized data, but also
for those tables that are available only in hard copy. At the most basic level,
this means perhaps the questionnaire and some information on the methods of
enumeration and processing. This is generally the limit for very early
censuses.
47.
For more recent unit-record
databases, documentation includes a comprehensive description of the variables
being stored and the classifications being used at the time (there may be a
later requirement to recode the data to a newer version of the classification).
It should also include information on the survey design and outliers in the
data. This may appear in a “Sources and Methods” document. Not only is this
worthwhile for users of census information, but it is also a good summary for
future developers.
48.
Having the data and the documentation
in databases and software that are common in the statistical office also
assists in ensuring capability. So staff who have knowledge of the database or
software can work across a range of information. And when these tools are updated,
the census data can also be updated.
49.
Delivery of the outputs continues well after the census data have
been produced. Again, there is a need for staff with knowledge of census data
(over several censuses) to be available to assist in delivering information to
clients. There is a need to maintain this knowledge in the statistical office
over the long term.
50.
A census of population and housing is
normally the biggest survey undertaken by a national statistical office. All
operations generally exceed the usual survey cycle process by several orders of
magnitude. Thus the census cycle is generally at least a five-year period.
51.
Maintaining capability over the cycle
is a difficult yet necessary requirement for the statistical office. It is
difficult, since most census staff will not be able to be employed continuously
over the census cycle. However, it is vital in that a key measure of the census
will be change over time, and there needs to be careful management of changes
to the survey process so as to understand which changes may be due to different
processes and which are real-world changes in society.
52.
Institutional memory in an
organization is often dependent on ability to retain staff. This may be strong
in a census team, given the high profile of the work. Complementing this will
be thorough documentation of processes to ensure that change is carefully
managed. In addition, a key capability to maintain is understanding and access
to past census data. This is critical to understanding change over time.
Unit-record data access is important to evaluate new trends from future data.
53. Census capability involves risk management to ensure that future censuses can be conducted to an increasing level of quality.
* This document was reproduced without formal editing
** Statistics New Zealand, New Zealand. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the United Nations Secretariat
[1] In matrix management an individual has two lines of responsibility: the subject matter and the function. So the responsibility for the final product is shared among a range of managers who are responsible for different components of the product.