— SDG Indicators

SDG Goals

Climate risks are escalating, and the window for action is narrowing. The 11-year stretch from 2015 to 2025 was the hottest on record, and greenhouse gas emissions continue an upward trend. While climate policies have helped constrain projected warming pathways, current commitments remain wholly insufficient to limit warming to the 1.5°C target.

Investments in disaster risk reduction and climate resilience are delivering results, but vulnerability continues to grow. Disaster-related mortality has fallen by nearly 65 per cent over the past decade, while national strategies have been adopted by almost three quarters of the world. Yet the number of people affected by disasters has more than doubled, and the world’s most vulnerable countries continue to bear a disproportionate burden.

Closing the climate gap requires more than commitments – it demands financing, as well as the tools and political will to act. Climate finance has exceeded the $100 billion goal for the third year, but much greater investment is needed. Stronger mitigation, scaled-up adaptation, sustained investment and unwavering political will are essential to protect hard-won development gains and support the countries and communities most vulnerable to climate change.

Two staff members of the United Nations Development Programme review satellite mapping data on a tablet, supporting rapid damage assessment and early recovery efforts after flooding and storms in Colombia.

Current trends point to a hotter and more hazardous future

The planet is sending increasingly urgent distress signals, and the window for meaningful action is narrowing. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2024 was the hottest year on record, capping 11 consecutive record-breaking years, with global temperatures reaching 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels and exceeding the 1.5°C threshold for the first time. Despite the temporary cooling effect of La Niña, 2025 still ranked as the second or third warmest year on record at around 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels.

Global greenhouse gas emissions – the underlying driver – reached a record 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2024, 2.3 per cent higher than in 2023. Encouragingly, worst-case temperature projections have fallen from the 3–3.5°C anticipated at the time of the Paris Agreement in 2015, showing climate policies are having a real effect. Yet the world remains far from where it needs to be. Even if every country fully delivers on its current climate pledges, warming is projected to reach 2.3 to 2.5°C this century. Under existing policies, that figure rises to 2.8°C – with disastrous impacts.

The consequences of sustained warming are already evident across every region. In the Arctic – the fastest-warming region on Earth – sea ice reached its lowest winter maximum on record in 2025. Global mean sea level has risen 11 centimetres since 1993, and extreme events struck virtually every continent in 2025.

The outlook ahead points to continued escalation. Scientists have confirmed a new El Niño began in June 2026, potentially among the strongest ever recorded, increasing the risk of drought, heavy rainfall and land and ocean heatwaves across the world. Every year from 2026 to 2030 is projected by WMO to be 1.3°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels. The extreme weather over the period – may be a preview of a new normal, unless the world changes course on emissions.

Warming climate fuels ninth straight year of record ocean heat

As the climate warms, the ocean absorbs around 91 per cent of the excess heat accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere, making it the planet’s largest heat reservoir. In 2025, according to the WMO, ocean heat content reached the highest level on record – for the ninth straight year. The rate of ocean warming between 2005 and 2025 was more than twice that observed between 1960 and 2005. Warmer oceans fuel tropical storms, accelerate sea-ice loss and drive sea-level rise, while also degrading marine ecosystems and weakening the ocean’s ability to absorb carbon.

Coral reefs are among the most vulnerable ecosystems. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, the world’s fourth global coral bleaching event, which affected 84 per cent of reefs across 83 countries and territories, likely concluded in mid-2025. Since 1998, every strong El Niño has triggered a global bleaching event, with heat stress becoming more widespread and severe each time. With strong El Niño conditions in 2026, further bleaching remains an immediate concern.

Persistently high disaster losses signal the urgent need for risk-informed investments

Exacerbated by climate change, disasters continue to exact a heavy economic toll, reducing income, deepening debt, increasing uninsurability and heightening reliance on humanitarian aid across the globe. Between 2015 and 2024, based on countries’ reported data, direct economic losses averaged over $110 billion a year – equivalent to 0.28 per cent of reporting countries’ GDP. These figures likely understate the true scale: when cascading effects and ecosystem damage are included, disaster losses exceed $2.3 trillion a year. This sustained economic burden underscores the urgent need to shift from reactive spending towards development that anticipates and accounts for disaster risk, backed by sustained resilience investment.

Economic losses are also unevenly distributed. LDCs accounted for nearly 13 per cent of globally reported losses over the same period, while representing just 1.36 per cent of total GDP, a more than tenfold disproportionate impact. LLDCs faced losses more than five times higher relative to their economic size. Without integrating disaster and climate risk into fiscal policy, infrastructure planning and financial regulation, losses will continue to undermine sustainable development gains.

Climate finance tops $100 billion for the third straight year

Climate finance is crucial to global mitigation and adaptation efforts, and developed countries have committed to mobilize $100 billion annually for developing countries by 2020 and through 2025. This goal was met for the third consecutive year, reaching $132.8 billion in 2023 and $136.7 billion in 2024, after first crossing the threshold at $115.9 billion in 2022, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Nearly two thirds went to mitigation, mostly in energy and transport. Adaptation finance held steady at around one quarter of the total, down from its 2020 high of one third. The 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact urges developed nations to double adaptation funding from 2019 levels by 2025. Based on OECD figures, meeting that goal will require an additional $5.8 billion in 2025.

Looking further ahead, the new collective quantified goal on climate finance agreed at the twenty-ninth Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for at least $1.3 trillion annually from all sources by 2035, with developed countries committing at least $300 billion per year. The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T, which charts the path to that target, shows that success will depend on mobilizing private investment, expanding access to capital, improving coordination across a fragmented climate finance landscape and better aligning investment frameworks with climate goals.

Climate finance provided and mobilized for developing countries based on OECD figures, 2020–2024 (billions of dollars)

Lives are being saved, but rising exposure is driving disaster impacts higher

As disasters have become more prevalent, so too have nations’ frameworks for response. In 2015, only 56 countries had national disaster risk strategies. By 2024, that number had nearly tripled to 141 countries with an increasing number of countries aligning their disaster risk reduction and national adaptation plans. Improvements in preparedness, including more comprehensive multi-hazard early-warning systems, has saved lives. Over the past decade, 2015–2024, global disaster-related mortality fell by nearly 65 per cent compared to the previous 10 years (2005–2014), dropping from 2.11 to 0.75 deaths per 100,000 population (excluding COVID-19-related cases), while average annual deaths declined by 53 per cent. While there were fewer deaths, the number of people affected by disasters has surged. The rate of affected populations more than doubled over the same period, from 1,199 to 2,445 per 100,000 population, with around 123 million people impacted each year.

The burden falls disproportionately on poorer countries. Between 2015 and 2024, LDCs accounted for 29 per cent of global disaster deaths despite representing just 12 per cent of reporting countries’ populations. LLDCs bore 21 per cent of deaths despite composing only 5.1 per cent, and SIDS accounted for 1.6 per cent of mortality while representing just 0.5 per cent of the population. Closing the gap between falling death tolls and rising numbers of affected people will require both strengthened international cooperation and sustained investment in disaster risk reduction, adaptation and resilience-building, particularly in the countries and communities least equipped to absorb the shock.

Disaster-related mortality and affected persons, 2005-2024 (per 100,000 population)

Critical infrastructure damage and service disruptions due to disasters remain widespread

Over the last decade, critical infrastructure has proved especially vulnerable to disasters. Between 2015 and 2024, based on countries’ reported data, an average of 91,847 units of critical infrastructure were destroyed or damaged every year. Over the same period, there were more than 1.5 million yearly disruptions to basic services, including continuity of health and education services. These figures reflect the systemic nature of disaster risk: water systems, power grids, transport networks and hospitals do not operate in isolation, and a single failure in one system can cascade across entire economies, undermining service delivery, livelihoods and long-term development progress.

Reducing these disruptions requires infrastructure built to withstand disasters from the outset. This means factoring disaster and climate risk into the full infrastructure life cycle, from planning and design to operation and maintenance. Stronger building standards, better data on infrastructure vulnerability and improved coordination between public authorities and private operators are equally essential.

Inaction is becoming increasingly costly, and disruptions are having a knock-on effect across systems. Reducing both the frequency and scale of disruptions will demand a shift towards risk-informed investment and the adoption of governance frameworks that align development planning with comprehensive risk management to ensure essential services can continue, even in the face of disaster.