The world’s economy runs through the oceans, making it vulnerable to maritime disruptions. In 2024, global seaborne trade neared a record high, reaching an estimated 24.1 billion metric tons – 16 per cent higher than in 2015. Yet maritime trade is operating in an increasingly volatile environment. With more than 80 per cent of global merchandise trade transported by sea, shifting trade policies, rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruptions in key shipping corridors – including the Red Sea, the Panama Canal and the Strait of Hormuz – have reshaped logistics networks, increased shipping costs and added inflationary pressures across the global economy.

The geography of seaborne trade is asymmetric. Eastern Asia and Europe each account for about 23 per cent of global seaborne trade, though Europe’s share has declined by 4.7 percentage points since 2015. Northern America and Latin America and the Caribbean have shown stable growth, while Africa, LDCs, LLDCs and SIDS represent only a small share of global seaborne trade. Despite a smaller share of the total, seaborne trade can constitute a vital lifeline for many countries, such as SIDS, leaving them particularly vulnerable to transport cost increases and supply-chain disruptions.

Global manufacturing has proven remarkably resilient. It rebounded 8.9 per cent in 2021 after the COVID-19 shock, strengthened to 3.0 per cent in 2024 following a year of geopolitical tensions and rising production costs, and rose a further 2.7 per cent in 2025 despite mounting trade tensions. Between 2015 and 2025, manufacturing value added per capita rose 18.1 per cent, from $1,657 in 2015 to $1,956 in 2025 (at constant 2020 prices).

These gains, however, mask regional disparities. While manufacturing in Central and Southern Asia surged ahead, with value added per capita up 47.9 per cent since 2015, it fell 16.7 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean. Meanwhile, the share of manufacturing valued added in GDP remained broadly stagnant at 15.6 per cent between 2015 and 2025.

More striking is where the recovery has faltered: jobs. Manufacturing’s share of global employment slipped from 14.3 per cent in 2015 to 13.7 per cent in 2025. As industrial expansion has become increasingly capital- and technology-intensive, and employment has continued a long-term shift toward services, the result is a pattern that is strong on output and weak on the inclusive employment that development depends on.

Innovation is advancing globally, although gaps across regions is widening. Between 2015 and 2023, global R&D investment grew by an average of 4.9 per cent annually, raising its share of global GDP from 1.71 to 1.92 per cent. The global research workforce expanded at a similar pace, with the number of researchers increasing by 4.4 per cent per year and researchers per million inhabitants rising from 1,141 to 1,486.

Yet these gains were not shared across regions. Europe and Northern America led, investing 2.55 per cent of GDP in R&D, and Eastern and South-Eastern Asia narrowed the gap significantly, with investment rising from 2.02 to 2.42 per cent between 2015 and 2023. Meanwhile, Latin America and the Caribbean, Central and Southern Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa continued to invest less than 1 per cent of GDP in R&D. Research capacity reflects a similar divide. Europe and Northern America had 4,358 researchers per million people in 2023, compared with just 88 in sub-Saharan Africa. Women remain underrepresented throughout, accounting for just 31.4 per cent of researchers globally.

Industrial upgrading has accompanied the overall gains. The share of medium and high-technology manufacturing in total manufacturing value added rose from 44.95 per cent in 2015 to a record 47.29 per cent in 2023, reflecting a gradual shift towards more knowledge-intensive production despite pandemic-related disruptions.

Mobile broadband coverage continues to expand globally. By 2025, 5G networks reached 55 per cent of the world’s population, while 4G coverage extended to 93 per cent and 3G to 96 per cent, reducing the global mobile broadband gap to just 4 per cent.

These advances have strengthened opportunities for innovation and access to digital services, but the gains have been deeply uneven. While 84 per cent of people in high-income countries are covered by 5G, coverage reaches only 4 per cent in low-income countries. What’s more, many of the most vulnerable economies are at risk of being shut out from the benefits of digital transformation. In LDCs and LLDCs, 12 per cent and 11 per cent of people, respectively, still lack access to any mobile broadband signal.