THIRD SEMINAR ON EARLY WARNING AND BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS

17-19 November 2010, Moscow, Russian Federation

 
 
 

List of Documents

       
 DOCUMENTATION FOR THE SEMINARFILESIZE
 1AgendaPDF37 KB
 1aDetailed Agenda of Break-out SessionsPDF27 KB
 2List of documentsASP
 4Concept notePDF25 KB
 5Final reportPDF78 KB
       
 PAPERS AND PRESENTATIONS FOR THE SEMINARFILESIZE
 SESSION 1:Opening
 S1.4Opening Remark (Paul Cheung, United Nations Statistics Division)PDF32 KB
 S1.8Recent European Experience with Macroeconomic Monitoring and Surveillance (Pieter Everaers, Eurostat)PDF101 KB
 P1.8Recent European Experience with Macroeconomic Monitoring and Surveillance (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PPT884 KB
 P1.9Recent Developments in Macroeconomic Monitoring (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT107 KB
 P1.10Development of a Business Cycle Clock in KoreaPPT2003 KB
 SESSION 2:Flash GDP
 P2.1Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PPT825 KB
 S2.2Flash Estimates of GDP (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PDF114 KB
 P2.2Flash Estimates of GDP (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PPT866 KB
 S2.3Some Issues of GDP Estimation and Forecasting (Gennady Kuranov, Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation)PDF92 KB
 P2.4Flash GDP (Vladimir Popov, United Nations Development Policy Analysis Division)PPT217 KB
 S2.5Measurement of Flash Indicator of Macroeconomic Inflation (Alexey Ponomarenko, Higher School of Economics, Russia)PDF40 KB
 P2.5Flash indicator of macroecnomic inflation - CPI or flash GDP daflator? (Alexey Ponomarenko, Higher School of Economics, Russia)PPT144 KB
 S2.7Quarterly GDP Estimation in China (Wei Yuanyuan, National Bureau of Statistics of China)PDF210 KB
 S2.8Developing Early Warning Indicators in OmanPDF210 KB
 SESSION 3:Composite indicators
 P3.2Banking crises and recessions: What can leading indicators tell us? (Martin Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, United Kingdom)PPT496 KB
 S3.3Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System? (Kajal Lahiri and Wenxiong Yao, University at Albany-SUNY)PDF550 KB
 P3.3Should Transportation Output be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System? (Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany-SUNY)PPT2198 KB
 P3.4Composite indicators (Gian Luigi Mazzi, Eurostat)PPT2039 KB
 S3.5New Tools for Tracking the Mexican Business Cycle (Yuriko Yabuta, National Institute of Statistics and Geography Mexico)PDF295 KB
 S3.6Russian Cyclical Indicators: Their Usefulness in 'Real Time' (Sergey Smirnov, Higher Scool of Economics, Russia)PDF432 KB
 S3.7Construction of a Composite Leading Indicator for India (T.Rajeswari, Central Statistical Office India)PDF137 KB
 P3.8Early Warning Indicators to Predict Financial Crises (Gert Schnabel, Bank for International Settlements)PPT533 KB
 S3.8.Bk1Background document: Assessing the Risk of Banking CrisesPDF533 KB
 SESSION 4:Tendency Surveys
 P4.1Working Group on Tendency Surveys - Overview of Programme (Ralf Becker, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT168 KB
 S4.2Harmonized Business and Consumer Surveys: An Overview (Gyorgy Gyomai, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development)PDF43 KB
 S4.3Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise? (Silvia Lui, James Mitchell and Martin Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, United Kingdom)PDF313 KB
 P4.3Qualitative Business Surveys: Signal or Noise? (Silvia Lui, James Mitchell and Martin Weale, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, United Kingdom)PPT642 KB
 S4.4The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates (Michael Graff and Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF, Switzerland)PDF184 KB
 P4.4The Information Content of Capacity Utilisation Rates for Output Gap Estimates (Michael Graff and Jan-Egbert Sturm, KOF, Switzerland)PPT1684 KB
 P4.5Tendency Surveys (Teck Wong Soon, Singapore)PPT110 KB
 P4.6Practice of Business Tendency Surveys In Russia: Methodology Aspects and Possibilities for Early Warning of Economic Activity Changes (Georgij Ostapkovich, Higher Scool of Economics, Moscow, Russia)PPT597 KB
 S4.7The Introduction on Business Climate Survey in China (Shouguo Hou, National Bureau of Statistics of China)PDF132 KB
 S4.8Research Study of Business Cycle and Early Warning Indicators for the Economy of Hong Kong (Sharon Ng, Eddie Kwok and Winnie Tam, Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong, China)PDF194 KB
 P4.9Construction of Cyclical Indicators for Ukraine on the BTS Basis (Maryna Pugachova, Statistics Ukraine)PPT425 KB
 S4.Bk1Business Tendency Surveys - A Handbook (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development)PDF3799 KB
 S4.Bk2General Principles Underlying the Harmonised Business and Consumer Surveys (Olivier Biau, Eurostat)PDF195 KB
 SESSION 5:Data template and analytical indicators
 S5.1Overview of Programme of Working Group on Data Template and Analytical Indicators (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division)PDF47 KB
 P5.1Overview of Programme of Working Group on Data Template and Analytical Indicators (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT226 KB
 S5.1.Bk1Background document: Data Template of High Frequency IndicatorsPDF374 KB
 P5.2Economic and Financial Statistics and Indicators for Multilateral Surveillance - PEEIs, PGIs and International Data Templates (Werner Bier, European Central Bank)PPT112 KB
 S5.3Cyclical Indicators for the United States (Carol E. Moylan, Bureau of Economic Analysis)PDF97 KB
 P5.3Cyclical Indicators for the United States (Carol E. Moylan, Bureau of Economic Analysis)PPT392 KB
 P5.4Data Template and analytical indicators (Eduardo Nunes, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)PPT2196 KB
 S5.5Development of Data Hubs for High Frequency Indicators (N.Eagambaram, Central Statistics Office, India)PDF103 KB
 S5.6Data Hub - Some Comments from Brazil (Sidnéia Reis Cardoso and Roberto Luis Olinto Ramos, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics)PDF27 KB
 S5.7Development of National Central Data Hub: The Case of Korea (Chanil Seo, Statistics Korea)PDF631 KB
 SESSION 6:Communication and dissemination
 S6.1Dissemination and Communication Standards and Issues: State of the Art in the UNECE Region (Steven Vale, United Nations Economic Commission of Europe)PDF100 KB
 P6.1Dissemination and Communication Standards and Issues: State of the Art in the UNECE Region (Steven Vale, United Nations Economic Commission of Europe)PPT776 KB
 S6.2Turning Statistics into Information: Indicator Sets and Visualizations (Floris van Ruth and Edwin de Jonge, Statistics Netherlands)PDF366 KB
 P6.2Letting the data speak: Statistical storytelling. Indicator sets and Visualisations (Floris van Ruth and Edwin de Jonge, Statistics Netherlands)PPT1593 KB
 P6.3Communication and Dissemination (Geert Bruinooge, Statistics Netherlands)PPT115 KB
 S6.5The Chilean Experience Regarding Communication and Dissemination Strategies for Short-term Official Statistics (María Eugenia Oliden, National Statistical Institute of Chile)PDF99 KB
 S6.6Indonesian Experience in Communication and Dissemination Strategies for Short Term Official Statistics (Kecuk Suhariyanto, Statistics Indonesia)PDF232 KB
 P6.6Indonesian Experience in Communication and Dissemination Strategies for Short Term Official Statistics (Kecuk Suhariyanto, Statistics Indonesia)PPT1469 KB
 S6.9Communication and Dissemination for Short Term Statistics in Morocco: An Ongoing Evolving System (High Commission of Planning Morocco)PDF119 KB
 SESSION 7:Break-out sessions
 SESSION 7.1:Flash GDP Estimates
 P7.1.1Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (1) (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PPT829 KB
 P7.1.2Overview of Programme of the Working Group on Flash Estimates of GDP (2) (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PPT831 KB
 P7.1.3Rapid Estimates: A Dashboard for Short-term Economic Developments (Kees Zeelenberg, Statistics Netherlands)PPT484 KB
 SESSION 7.2:Composite Indicators
 S7.2.1Relevancy and Utility of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite Indicators (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division)PDF35 KB
 P7.2.1The Practical Utility for Official Statisticians of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite indicators (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT143 KB
 P7.2.4Composite Estimators, Data Related Issues (Frank van de Pol, Jan van den Brakel, Jan de Haan, Pim Ouwehand, Julian Chow)PPT96 KB
 P7.2.6Indicators to Measure Cyclical Movements (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT116 KB
 S7.2.10Global Assessment on Business Cycle Composite Indicators - Draft (Julian Chow, United Nationa Statistics Division)PDF47 KB
 P7.2.10Draft Questionnaire for the Global Assessment on Business Cycle Composite Indicators (Julian Chow, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT279 KB
 S7.2.Bk1Background document: Outline of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite IndicatorsPDF29 KB
 S7.2.Bk2Background document: Annotated outline of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite IndicatorsPDF158 KB
 P7.2.Bk2Background presentation: Annotated outline of the Handbook on Business Cycle Composite IndicatorsPPT821 KB
 SESSION 7.3:Tendency Surveys
 S7.3.1.Global Assessment on Tendency SurveysPDF416 KB
 P7.3.1.Global Assessment on Tendency Surveys (Paul Hanna, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT1773 KB
 S7.3.2.Relevancy and Utility of the Handbook on Tendency SurveysPDF48 KB
 S7.3.3.Handbook on Harmonised System of Tendency Surveys - Table of ContentPDF12 KB
 P7.3.4.Mainstreaming Data and Composite Indicators From Tendency Survey as Official Statistics (Gian Paolo Oneto, ISTAT)PPT248 KB
 P7.3.5.Flash Indicator for the Business Sentiment (Kaisa Ben Daher, Statistics Sweden)PPT706 KB
 P7.3.6.Agriculture Tendency Index in Indonesia: Progress and Challenges (Kecuk Suhariyanto, Statistics Indonesia)PPT1506 KB
 P7.3.7.BTS in the Agricultural Sector in Ukraine (Maryna Pugachova, State Statistics Committee, Ukraine)PPT164 KB
 P7.3.8.The Potential of Sentiment Indicators and Business Surveys in Tracing Crisis Economic Development - Russian Lessons (Sergey Tsukhlo, Gaidar Institute for the Economic Policy, Russia)PPT69 KB
 P7.3.9.Tendency Surveys Terminology (Rosa Ruggeri Cannata, Eurostat)PPT585 KB
 P7.3.10.Future Research Issues (Rosa Ruggeri Cannata, Eurostat)PPT649 KB
 S7.3.Bk1Background document: Economic Sentiment Shocks and Fluctuations in Real Activity in the Euro AreaPDF214 KB
 S7.3.Bk2Background document: Frequency Domain Analysis of Consumer Confidence, Industrial Production and Retail Sales for Selected European CountriesPDF147 KB
 S7.3.Bk3Background document: Understanding the Global Trade Downturn and RecoveryPDF137 KB
 S7.3.Bk4Background document: Euro Area GDP Forecasting Using Large Survey Datasets: A Random Forest ApproachPDF179 KB
 S7.3.Bk5Background document: Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer SurveysPDF170 KB
 SESSION 7.4:Data Template and Analytical Indicators
 S7.4.2.The proposed core set of economic statistics for Asia and the Pacific and its comparison with other data templates (Artur Andrysiak, Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific)PDF204 KB
 P7.4.2.The proposed core set of economic statistics for Asia and the Pacific (Artur Andrysiak, Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific)PPT634 KB
 P7.4.3Strategic Indicators for Industrial Statistics (Shyam Upadhyaya, UNIDO)PPT532 KB
 P7.4.8Reference Metadata for Data Template (Ales Capek, Eurostat)PPT571 KB
 SESSION 8:Summary of working group discussions
 P8.1.Organisation of Work for Session 8 Reports of Working Groups (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT89 KB
 P8.2.Report on the Break-out Session on Rapid Estimates (Roberto Barcellan, Eurostat)PPT843 KB
 P8.4.Report on the Break-out Session on Tendency Surveys (Gian Paolo Oneto, ISTAT)PPT119 KB
 P8.5.Report on the Break-out Session on Data Template and Analytical Indicators (Ales Capek, Eurostat)PPT560 KB
 SESSION 9:Formulation of final conclusions
 P9.1.Organisation of Work for Session 9 Strategy and Roadmap (Ivo Havinga, United Nations Statistics Division)PPT85 KB
 SESSION 10:Closing Session
       
 SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION AND COUNTRY PRACTICESFILESIZE
 Bk1The Leading Economic Indicator System (LEIS) in the Philippines (Romulo A. Virola, Regina S. Reyes and Florande S. Polistico, National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines)PDF42 KB
 Bk2Expectations Surveys in the Philippine Statistical System (Romulo A. Virola and Candido J. Astrologo, Jr., National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines)PDF1258 KB