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SNA News and Notes
SNA News and Notes
Issue 11, May 2000
Implementing the 1993 SNA: Milestone assessment
ISWGNA view on further development: Concept and Scope
By Paul McCarthy, OECD
(For Information)
Background
At its meeting at the end of February 2000, the UN
Statistical Commission discussed the 1993 System of National Accounts
(1993 SNA) implementation milestones. In their current format,
the milestones simply indicate the extent to which national accounting
tables have been produced rather than the extent to which 1993 SNA has
actually been implemented. Therefore, the discussion also considered the
issue of how to assess when a country has implemented 1993 SNA.
Three main questions were discussed:
- indicators of whether a country compiles its accounts according to
1993 SNA concepts
- determining whether a country produces accounts which cover the major
economic activities (ie, the scope of the accounts)
- measuring the data quality.
The ISWGNA discussed these issues at its meeting
in early April 2000. This note briefly outlines the issues underlying
the ISWGNA thinking on the first two of these points (the third point
is currently being investigated by the IMF as part of its work on the
Special Data Dissemination Standard [SDDS]).
1993 SNA concepts
The main basis for assessment is the extent to which
the 1993 SNA conventions, accounting rules and classifications are being
used. In practice, this should not just apply to GDP; the whole accounts
need to be examined for compliance. However, the ISWGNA thought that compliance
with the 1993 SNA could be assessed reasonably by concentrating on the
major conceptual differences between the 1993 SNA and the 1968 SNA that
affect GDP and GNI. The logic is that if the majority of these changes
have been implemented then it is likely that other relevant changes have
also been introduced.
The following are the key concepts the ISWGNA thought
were relevant in making an assessment.
| Elements affecting the level of GDP |
|
| Gross capital formation (GCF)/output |
|
| | Is government defence expenditure
on fixed assets that can be used for civilian purposes included in
GCF? |
|
| | Is consumption of fixed capital
included on all government fixed assets (roads, dams and breakwaters
and other forms of construction except structures)? |
|
| | Is all mineral exploration (successful
and unsuccessful) capitalised? |
|
| | Is expenditure on computer software
purchases included in GCF and on software development included in
output? |
|
| | Is expenditure on entertainment,
literary or artistic originals included in GCF and on their development
included in output? |
|
| | Is expenditure on valuables included
in GCF? |
|
| | 1993 SNA extends the production
boundary of households to include goods that are not made from primary
goods are these goods included in output? |
|
| | 1993 SNA extends the production
boundary of households to include goods that are processed from primary
goods which are not self-produced are these goods included
in output? |
|
| | Is the natural growth of cultivated
forests included in output and GCF? |
|
| Volume estimates |
|
| | Are volumes estimated using a chaining
procedure with annually changing weights? |
|
| Social contributions/insurance |
|
| | Are un-funded social contributions
(for sickness, unemployment, retirement etc) by enterprises imputed
as compensation of employees and included as contributions to social
insurance? |
|
| | Do life insurance estimates include
premium supplements rather than being based just on premiums less
claims? |
| Elements affecting GNI |
|
| | Are reinvested earnings estimates
included in the rest of the world account? |
|
| | Are foreign workers remittances
excluded? |
|
| Elements not affecting the
level of GDP/GNI |
|
| Final consumption |
|
| | Is government final consumption
expenditure broken down into individual and collective consumption? |
Obviously, it is difficult to objectively identify
the boundary beyond which a country can be considered to have implemented
the 1993 SNA concepts. It is clear that it is not essential for
all the above components to be implemented for a country to comply
with the 1993 SNA requirements. However, for a country to not comply with
a significant number of them would lead to doubts about the extent to
which it has implemented the 1993 SNA in practice.
Scope
The milestone assessment was based on
the extent to which data from 6 groups of tables were reported to the
UN Statistics Division. One unintended side effect was that some countries
saw the current milestones as indicating the order in which additions
to national accounts had to be approached.
The ISWGNA considers that splitting the milestones
into a larger number of items, all of which score one point in assessing
the degree of implementation, would be a practical alternative. An implication
is that each point is of equal importance or would take the
same amount of work to implement (neither of which is true). However,
the ISWGNA considered that, by having the potential to score more than
30 points rather than the current scale of only 6, the impact of such
differences would be much less marked than is currently the case, thereby
addressing the issue of the non-linearity of the current milestones,
which has been a source of concern to some countries.
The ISWGNA decided that a minimum set of annual data
is required for a country before it could be considered as having implemented
the 1993 SNA and that certain quarterly accounts should be recommended
because of their importance in assessing where an economy is headed. The
data sets identified are shown in the following table, which is presented
in terms of the tables collected in the UN questionnaire.
Note:
The legend is as follows:
Tables shown without a number are not currently included
in the annual SNA questionnaire
Scope of the compilation of 1993 SNA tables and accounts
|
SNA segments
|
Annual accounts
|
Quarterly accounts
|
| Numbers of related tables of UN questionnaire on SNA |
|
|
|
|
Value added, GDP and Employment
|
|
2.1
|
Value added and GDP in current prices by industry
|
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
|
2.2
|
Value added and GDP in constant prices by industry |
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
|
1.3
|
Expenditures of the GDP in current prices |
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
|
1.4
|
Expenditures of the GDP in constant prices |
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
|
2.3
|
Value added components by industry, current prices |
Min reqt
|
Desirable
|
| Employment by industry |
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
|
Integrated accounts and tables, including integrated satellite
accounts
|
|
1.5/4.1
|
Accounts for the total economy |
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
| |
Supply and use table |
Recomm
|
Desirable
|
|
5.1
|
Cross-classification of output/value added by
industries and sectors |
Recomm
|
|
| |
Integrated economic accounts |
*
|
|
| |
|
Tourism accounts |
*
|
|
| |
|
Environmental accounts |
*
|
|
|
|
|
Social Accounting Matrices
Other socioeconomic accounts
|
*
|
|
|
Purpose classification of expenditures
|
|
3.1
|
General government final consumption (and other)
expenditure by purpose in current prices |
Recomm
|
|
| |
General government final consumption expenditure
by purpose at constant prices |
*
|
|
|
3.2
|
Individual consumption (and other) expenditures
by purpose in current prices |
Recomm
|
|
|
|
Individual consumption expenditures by purpose
at constant prices |
*
|
|
| |
Purpose classification of intermediate and final
consumption across all sectors |
*
|
|
|
Sector accounts (until net lending)
|
|
4.2
|
Rest of the world accounts (until net lending) |
Min reqt
|
Recomm
|
|
4.3
|
Non-financial corporations sector accounts (until
net lending) |
*
|
|
|
4.4
|
Financial corporations accounts (until net lending) |
Recomm
|
|
|
4.5
|
General government sector accounts (until net
lending) |
Recomm
|
|
|
4.6
|
Household sector accounts (until net lending) |
*
|
|
|
4.7
|
Non-profit institutions serving households sector
accounts (until net lending) |
*
|
|
|
Financial and capital stock accounts and tables
|
|
4.1-4.7 |
Financial accounts for all sectors |
*
|
|
| |
Balance sheets, revaluation and volume changes
in asset accounts |
*
|
|
| |
Asset accounts for financial assets |
*
|
|
| |
Asset accounts for produced assets |
*
|
|
| |
Asset accounts for non-produced assets |
*
|
|
Conclusion
The ISWGNA will discuss the above issues again at
its next meeting in September 2000 before deciding on its recommendations
to the 2001 meeting of the UN Statistical Commission. Any comments or
feedback on anything presented in this note should be sent to OECD (currently
Chair of the ISWGNA) by the end of August in time for it to be circulated
prior to the September ISWGNA meeting. The e-mail address for comments
is paul.mccarthy@oecd.org
Implementation of the
new European System of Accounts (ESA 1995)
By Brian Newson, Eurostat (For
Information)
Starting in the second
quarter of 1999, Eurostat received data on the national accounts of Member
States based on the new European System of Accounts (ESA 1995). ESA 1995
is the European version of the world System of National Accounts (1993
SNA). It is almost totally consistent with 1993 SNA as regards the definitions,
accounting rules and classifications. It nevertheless incorporates certain
differences, particularly in its presentation, to be more in line with
its use within the European Union.
To ensure that the methodological
provisions set out in ESA 1995 are strictly applied, the Council of the
European Union decided to give a solid legal basis; ESA 1995 was thus
adopted in the form of a Council Regulation dated 25 June 1996, applicable
to all Member States.
In addition to the changes
in methodology, revisions have also been made as a result of work on improving
the real comparability in practice of GNP (gross national product). In
particular, efforts have been made to ensure better coverage of all economic
activities, as part of the work on exhaustiveness carried out on a harmonised
basis.
The methodological changes
in ESA 1995, as in 1993 SNA, affect the whole range of statistics in the
sector and industry accounts and the main concepts of final consumption,
gross capital formation, imports and exports. However, they have a limited
impact on gross domestic product (GDP), because many of the changes offset
each other at the level of the total economy.
Taking 1995 as the reference
year, the Table shows the differences between ESA79 data supplied in 1998
and ESA95 data on GDP and the main aggregates.
| |
GDP |
Final consumption expenditure |
Gross fixed capital formation |
Exports |
Imports |
| Total |
Concepts |
Statistical sources and other elements |
|
|
| Euro-zone |
+1.9 |
- |
- |
+1.1 |
+7.2 |
+2.5 |
+4.1 |
| European Union |
+2.0 |
- |
- |
+1.1 |
+7.2 |
+2.2 |
+3.4 |
|
| Belgium |
+0.8 |
+1.6 |
-0.8 |
-2.0 |
+14.3 |
+5.7 |
+6.6 |
| Denmark |
+6.4 |
+4.1 |
+2.3 |
+4.3 |
+17.1 |
+5.3 |
+5.8 |
| Germany |
+2.3 |
+1.1 |
+1.2 |
+1.3 |
+6.4 |
+5.1 |
+5.5 |
| Greece |
+1.3 |
- |
- |
+3.3 |
- |
+12.7 |
+1.2 |
| Spain |
+4.4 |
+1.5 |
+2.9 |
+3.2 |
+10.3 |
-0.6 |
+0.6 |
|
| France |
+1.2 |
+0.2 |
+1.0 |
+1.2 |
+6.7 |
-3.2 |
+1.0 |
| Ireland |
+0.2 |
-3.0 |
+3.2 |
+5.1 |
+5.8 |
+0.3 |
+6.9 |
| Italy |
+0.9 |
+1.7 |
-0.8 |
-0.4 |
+7.0 |
-1.7 |
-1.5 |
| Luxembourg |
+3.8 |
- |
- |
+7.2 |
-5.7 |
+11.2 |
+12.3 |
| Netherlands |
+4.1 |
+3.3 |
+0.8 |
+2.7 |
+13.7 |
+12.8 |
+15.8 |
|
| Austria |
+2.0 |
- |
- |
+2.0 |
+3.5 |
+0.3 |
+1.3 |
| Portugal |
+1.9 |
- |
- |
+0.3 |
+3.8 |
+0.9 |
-1.2 |
| Finland |
+2.1 |
- |
- |
+0.5 |
+12.9 |
+1.0 |
+2.2 |
| Sweden |
+3.4 |
+2 to +2.5 |
+1 to +1.5 |
+1.8 |
+11.1 |
+1.6 |
+1.1 |
| United Kingdom |
+1.6 |
+0.8 |
+0.8 |
+1.0 |
+4.9 |
+0.0 |
+0.0 |
The causes of the differences vary from one Member State to another.
Some Member States have gradually incorporated the new statistical sources
in recent years, even before the changeover to ESA 1995; in these countries,
therefore, the impact has been limited to changes in concepts. In other
Member States, however, all the changes were made at the same time as
the new system was introduced.
With regard to the
main aggregates of GDP, the biggest changes for many countries come from
the new, clearer breakdown in SNA and ESA between final consumption expenditure
made by households and by government. There is a general decline, sometimes
quite significant, in the final consumption expenditure of households,
offset by a matching rise in general government consumption.
The most consistent
change in GDP stems from a large increase in capital formation, due primarily
to the extension of the notion of investment, but also to the use of better
statistical sources.
In the EU countries
there are also significant increases in imports and exports, although
the impact on the external trade balance, and hence on GDP, is limited
(see the Table).
The European Commission
(Eurostat) has data on the main changes between ESA79 and ESA95 having
an influence on the level of GDP or National Income, amongst which the
following proved to have the strongest impacts:
- the recording of certain types of intangible assets like computer
software in capital formation and no more in intermediate consumption ;
- the new concept of reinvested earnings of foreign direct investment ;
- the new valuation method for the output of non-life insurance which
incorporates now the income from the investment of insurance technical
reserves
- the recording of a consumption of fixed capital for structures built
by government units such as roads, dams or dikes ;
- the recording of military equipment or vehicles similar to those
used by civilians in gross fixed capital formation rather than in intermediate
consumption ;
- the recording of entertainment, literary, artistic and audiovisual
originals in gross fixed capital formation ;
- a slight change to the frontier in ESA between market and non-market
output ;
- the recording of interest on an accrual basis;
- the broadening of the concept of wages and salaries in kind.
Implementing the 1993
SNA: how to deal with revisions?
By Nils Maehle and Sarmad
Khawaja, IMF (For Information)
Implementing the 1993 SNA requires that previously
published national accounts data for past years be revised to achieve
consistent time series. Further, that a carefully managed revision policy
is needed to minimize potential inconvenience for users. Ideally, such
a revision policy should be part of an existing policy, and if such a
policy were not in place, introduction of the 1993 SNA would be a good
occasion to introduce one. Essential features of a well-designed revision
and dissemination policy are predictability and openness, advance notice
of causes and effects, and explanation, as well as easy access to sufficiently
long time series of revised data.
Introduction
Implementing the new concepts,
definitions, and classifications of the 1993 SNA requires revisions
of previously published data because most users demand consistent time
series. It is important to emphasize that these revisions are undertaken
to provide users with the substantial analytical benefits of the new system
without introducing breaks in the time series. Consistent time series
are essential for most uses of national accounts data, including macroeconomic
policy formulations, business cycle analyses, and forecasting. For these
uses, any break in the time series will seriously undermine the usefulness
of the series.
Despite the added analytical
benefits for users of the new system, the revisions to the past data may
draw criticism if not properly handled. Revisions to past data are inconvenient
to users because they entail revisions to users data bases and applications.
More importantly, frequent revisions, particularly to the data for the
most recent periods, may cause users to feel more uncertain about the
current economic situation and thus uncertain about what policy actions
should be taken. Some of this uncertainty may be unavoidable, merely revealing
the fact that the information base for the estimates for the most recent
periods is limited, and thus that the numbers should be used with care.
However, some of the uncertainty may also be caused unnecessarily by the
way the revisions are carried out.
To avoid unnecessary criticism,
a carefully managed revision policy is needed. Ideally, the revisions
related to implementing the 1993 SNA should be carried out as part
of a well-established revision policy for incorporating improvements to
both source data and estimation methods. If such a revision policy were
not in place, introduction of the 1993 SNA would be a good occasion
to introduce one.
Revision policies in
general
Revisions are undertaken to provide users with data
that are as timely and accurate as possible. Resource constraints, in
combination with user needs, cause tension between timeliness of published
data, on the one hand, and reliability, accuracy, and comprehensiveness
on the other hand. To reduce this tension, typically preliminary data
are compiled that later are revised when more and better source data become
available. Revision is the vehicle to incorporate new and more accurate
information into the estimates without introducing breaks in the time
series. [1]
Typically, there are three main revision cycles
related to three waves of statistical source data. First,
there is a quarterly revision cycle determined by the evolution of the
quarterly national accounts source data. Second, there is an annual revision
cycle arising from the incorporation of the annual source data. Because
of the recurrent nature of these revisions and their frequency, they can
be dubbed regular revisions. Third, there may be a revision
cycle originating from incorporation of data from benchmark censuses
that are conducted with intervals of, say, five or ten years. Because
of their significance, these revisions are often dubbed major
revisions. These major revisions are usually also used to introduce conceptual
changes and changes resulting from improved compilation methods or new
international guidelines like the 1993 SNA, as well as other expansions
to the accounting system.
A crucial part of a well-established and transparent
revision policy is devising an appropriate production and release schedule.
Revisions are not without problems. Large data revisions not related to
major conceptual changes can result in mistrust, while frequent but small
revisions are inconvenient for users. In addition, constantly revising
the estimates is costly. The temptation to suppress needed revisions,
however, may also lead to criticism from users. Not only may the magnitude
of later revisions be increased, but suppressing revisions may also reduce
the usefulness and trustworthiness of the data. Unjustified differences
between national accounts estimates and their source data may cause users
to doubt the competence of the national accounts compilers, with serious,
and justified, criticism of the national accounts data as a result.
To minimize the number of revisions needed, without
suppressing information, it is advisable to coordinate statistical activities.
The revision schedule is, or should be, largely driven by arrival of source
data, and coordinating their arrival would help reduce the number of revisions
needed substantially. Tying introduction of new concepts and methods,
or new international guidelines such as the 1993 SNA to the time
of other planned revisions would also help reduce the number of revisions.
Although the timing of censuses and new surveys may not be at the discretion
of national accountants, they may have a strong say in this, and they
are well advised to use their influence to achieve maximum consistency
with their revision policy.
In addition to developing a production and release
schedule, other important elements of a well-established revision policy
are:
- An optimal balance between timeliness and accuracy of the initial
estimates.
- Release dates that are well known and published through an advance
release calendar, as prescribed by the IMFs Special Data Dissemination
Standard (SDDS) and General Data Dissemination System (GDDS).
- Release and revision dates coordinated with the arrival of major
data sources and the timing of preparation important official economic
policy documents.
- Candid and easily available documentation of sources and methods
showing the main flows of source data leading to revisions.
- Provide information on the accuracy of the estimates and the degree
of potential future revisions (e.g., through records of past revisions).
- Provision of sufficiently long, consistent time series.
- Provision of detailed data in an easily accessible format (e.g.,
electronically).
- Publication of tables showing the revisions to the data with accompanying
text explaining their causes.
- Advance notice and training to users of the national accounts data
Revision strategies for implementing
the 1993 SNA
Implementing major new guidelines like the 1993
SNA causes particular challenges compared to regular revisions. Ideally,
all changes related to the implementation of the 1993 SNA would
be incorporated in one single comprehensive revision. However, for most
countries, a full implementation of the 1993 SNA would involve
a substantial expansion of their current national accounting system. Thus,
resource and source data constraints may force many countries to adopt
a phased implementation process, in which various aspects of the 1993
SNA are implemented over a range of years. Such a phased process,
while admittedly easier to implement, may result in a prolonged period
of potentially damaging instability in main national accounts aggregates.
A phased implementation process requires a carefully
planned and managed revision policy. Before embarking on a phased implementation
process, it is crucial to consult with major users to get their support.
To avoid unnecessary instability in the data it is preferable that subsequent
phases do not affect the same parts of the system. For instance, the repercussions
of introducing income accounts first and financial accounts later may
be limited. However, because of the integrated nature of the system, revisions,
or additions, to different parts of the system may necessitate revisions
to other parts of the system. It is not advisable, however, to try to
reduce the number of revisions by not carrying the repercussions of a
revision in one part of the accounting system through to other related
parts of the system. The resulting inconsistencies between different parts
of the accounting system may again significantly increase policy makers
uncertainty regarding the actual economic situation, with justifiable
criticism as a result. Introduction of subsequent phases in tandem with
a program of undertaking other major revisions to the data will also help
reducing the number of revisions needed.
Each time major changes are introduced particular
care should be exercised to prepare users in advance. This ensures that
they are properly informed of the reasons for the revisions and the quality
improvements that they will entail. In that context, it may be useful
to develop a program of training and educating users, to make them, as
much as possible, appreciative of the advantages of the new data.
[1] For a more comprehensive discussion of revisions
and revision policies in general see the draft IMF Textbook on Quarterly
National Accounts Compilation, which is available on the IMFs
Website ( www.IMF.org ).
Implementing the 1993 SNA: Backward revision of national accounts data
By Barbro Hexeberg,
World Bank (For Information)
To maintain consistent
time series, a backward revision of national accounts data is required
as a part of the implementation of the 1993 SNA. For the same reason,
periodic major backward revisions are required to incorporate data from
periodic benchmark censuses, new source data, as well as to
implement new and better estimation methods. These article aims at providing
a brief description of some of the technical issues involved in obtaining
revised consistent time series within the resource and source data constraints
facing most compilers.
Introduction
User needs for long time
series require that revised data for several years are compiled and released
simultaneously when major revisions are conducted. This is because consistent
time series of national accounts data are essential for macroeconomic
policy formulation, macro-economic model building, as well as for research
and other analytical work on past economic development. For most users
access to revised data for one or a few years will only be of limited
use, unless they themselves are able to link the revised data to previously
published data for the earlier years.
However, compiling long
time series of revised detailed national account estimates is a time consuming
and expensive task. Thus, initial releases of revised data tend to cover
a limited number of the most recent years only, with subsequent compilation
and releases of revised data for the earlier years at a later stage. Country
practice in this respect differs substantially, depending on domestic
user needs and resource constraints. For many users, a minimum time series
of 10 years are required in order to carry out meaningful time series
analyses.
Recalculating historical series
Ideally, both the revised
time series covered in the initial release and the subsequent backward
estimates for earlier years should be compiled from scratch based on a
set of detailed source data, that for the complete time period are consistent
with the 1993 SNAs concepts and classifications. In practice, however,
this tends to be impossible since some required source statistics may
not be available, or too costly to re-generate, for some or several of
the earlier years. Furthermore, if the implemented accounting system covers
a substantial part of the integrated institutional sector accounts or
integrated annual supply and use tables, the recalculation process will
have to involve a costly and time consuming reconciliation process. Thus,
at the most detailed compilation level the revised time series partly
or dominantly may have to be constructed using a benchmark-indicator approach
combined with a more or less mechanical reconciliation of the accounts.
A major revision may involve
establishing new series for newly introduced concepts or parts of the
SNA not previously implemented, as well as adjusting previously published
data to incorporate:
- Changes to existing concepts, definitions, and bookkeeping
conventions arising from new international guidelines
- Changes in classifications
- New estimation methods
- Correcting past known errors
- New source data, incl. new periodic benchmark censuses/surveys
Some of these changes may
easily be implemented directly from existing data for the complete time
series, or important parts of the time series. For example, some changes
to concepts, definitions, or classifications merely involve a regrouping
of items that can be separately identified from the existing national
accounts data, or from the existing source data. Similarly, changing from
constructing aggregated volume measures as fixed base Laspeyres indices/constant
price series to annual chain-linked Laspeyres or Fisher indices merely
involves changing the higher-level aggregation formula. This change can
in principle be implemented without any changes to the underlying detailed
data, as long as the corresponding detailed current price data are available.
Also past know errors can, for individual series, in most cases be corrected
directly. Finally, new source data for the latter part of some series,
indicating that the estimated level of the series is wrong, can often
be incorporated directly to adjust that part of the series covered by
the new source. Revised data for earlier periods may have to be constructed
by splicing in the previously compiled data using a benchmark-indicator
approach.
Also other changes may
in principle be possible to implement directly, however, the cost might
be too high. One example is changing the industry classification from
ISIC rev. 2 to ISIC rev. 3. Cost constraints may often render this approach
unfeasible in practice. For that reason, the solution might be to recompile
data from scratch for one, or a few, benchmark year(s). Revised
data for the other years will then have to be constructed using a constrained
benchmark-indicator approach to assure the same total.
Finally, some changes may
only be possible to implement directly for one, or a few, benchmark
year(s). For instance, data from new periodic benchmark censuses/surveys
can by nature only be incorporated directly for those benchmark years.
In those circumstances revised data for the other years will have to be
constructed using a benchmark-indicator approach.
The benchmark-indicator
approach
Generally benchmarking
means combining a time series of data (indicator) with more reliable level-data
from one or several benchmark years for the same variable. In the benchmarking
process the benchmark(s) solely determines the overall level of the series,
while the indicator determines the (short-term) movements. Thus, only
the movements, and not the overall level, of the indicator are of any
importance. In the context of conducting major revisions the indicator
may be:
- the old national accounts estimates for the series;
- the original source data for the series;
- recompiled source data for the series; or
- a related series.
For annual data, four main
benchmarking situations can be distinguished. The first and simplest case
arises when benchmark data for only a single year are available. The second,
and slightly more complex case, arises when benchmark data for two years
separated in time are available. The third case arises when benchmark
data for more than two years separated in times are available. The last,
and somewhat different case, arises when benchmark data for
a series of adjacent years are available.
(i) The case of a single
benchmark year
Benchmarking with a single
benchmark year means to multiply the complete indicator series by a single
adjustment factor derived as the ratio between the benchmark and the indicator
for that single benchmark year (the Benchmark-to-Indicator (BI) ratio).
Technically this is the
same as using the growth rates of the indicator to extrapolate backward
and forward from the given benchmark level. This simple method may yield
reasonable historical time series if it is sensible to believe that the
indicator and the target variable are moving in parallel. Thus, this method
is not recommended if the BI ratio is believed to change significantly
over time.
(ii) The case of two
separate benchmark years
Two separate benchmark
years mean that two different BI ratios can be derived. Assuming that
the BI ratio has changed from the first benchmark year to the second benchmark
year in a smooth manner, a time series of BI ratios for the intervening
years can be constructed by a simple linear interpolation process. That
is by using the geometric average change in the BI ratio from the first
to the second benchmark year to extrapolate forward from the BI ratio
for the first benchmark year. The revised estimates for the intervening
years can then be constructed by multiplying the indicator for those years
with the interpolated BI ratio series. Revised estimates for years before
the first benchmark year can be constructed simply by multiplying with
the calculated BI ratio for the first benchmark year, and revised estimates
for years after the second benchmark year by multiplying with the calculated
BI ratio for the second benchmark year. A critical assumption then is
that the BI ratio is stable for the years before the first benchmark year,
and for the years following the second benchmark year.
(iii) The case of more
than two separate benchmark years
This case differs from
the case with two separate benchmark years in two important aspects. First,
the BI ratios for the intervening years can no longer be constructed using
a simple linear interpolation process. Instead a constrained least-square
minimization interpolation process should be used to generate an as smooth
as possible time series of BI ratios. Second, the change in the BI ratio
from benchmark year to benchmark year may follow an identifiable trend.
In that case, it may be preferable to use the identified trend change
in the BI ratio to extrapolate backward the first observed BI ratio and
to extrapolate forward the last observed BI ratio.
(iv) The case of benchmark
data for a series of adjacent years
This typically occurs when
new source data for the latter part of a series becomes available, indicating
that the previously estimated level of the series is wrong or the new
data are measured on a new basis. Revised data for years not covered by
the new source series will then have to be constructed by splicing in
the previously compiled data. The simplest way of doing this would be
to use the growth rates of old data to extrapolate backward from the first
year covered by the new source series; that is multiplying all years in
the old series up to the first benchmark year covered by the new series
with the BI ratio for the first benchmark year. However, since the new
and old series overlap for several years, a time series of BI ratios can
be calculated, which may reveal that the year-to-year change in the BI
ratio for those years have followed an identifiable trend. Then, again
it may be better to use the identified trend change in the BI ratio to
extrapolate backward from the BI ratio observed for the first overlapping
year.
Constrained benchmark-indicator
approach assuring the same total
If the benchmark-indicator
approach is used to incorporate classification changes backwards, it may
be essential to secure that the procedure does not change the total. This
can be obtained in several manners. The simplest way would be to use a
two-step approach. The first step involves adjusting each individual series,
and in the second step the difference between the sum of the adjusted
and the original data is removed by simple pro rating. This simple method
should provide the best result in the case of a single benchmark year,
but may introduce unnecessary disturbances to the year-to-year growth
rates in the case of multiple benchmark years. In that case, the constrained
least-square interpolation process mentioned above can be augmented by
introducing a keeping the total requirement as an additional
constraint.
Express your opinion!
It is important for developing further the 1993 SNA!
The SNA News and Notes
has already announced the way you can express your opinion. Three electronic
discussion groups now exist in the areas of
(click on the button "Papers under discussion")
The ISWGNA would like to
draft a conclusion on the basis of the opinions sent to the discussion
groups. It is scheduled that the EDGs will be closed on September 1, 2000.
Please send your letter expressing your opinion or the opinion of your
organization to the addresses above before that date. Your cooperation
is highly appreciated.
First update of the
1993 SNA officially adopted
By Cristina Hannig,
UN Statistics Division (For Information)
The first update of the
1993 SNA regarding the treatment of financial derivatives has been adopted
by the United Nations Statistical Commission and it is now being prepared
for official publication.In accordance with the procedures set out by
the Commission the updated text was circulated in June 1999 to all national
statistical offices for their comments and thereafter in October 1999
the final revised text was sent to the 24 members of the Commission for
their final approval. In a letter dated 8 February 2000 to all 24 member
of the Commission, the Director of the UNSD, Mr. Hermann Habermann announced
that this change of the 1993 SNA was brought to a conclusion in accordance
with the update procedures set out by the Commission. Furthermore, the
thirty-first session of the Statistical Commission in early March 2000
took note of this update as announced by the Chair of the ISWGNA when
introducing the report of the ISWGNA to the Commission.
Up-date on economic and social classification
By Mary Chamie, UN Statistics
Division (For Information)
A newly updated and redesigned UN Website for International
Economic and Social Classifications continues to be maintained at the
following address: www.un.org/Depts/unsd/class
It provides, through its Registry, access to classifications
used in the implementation of the 1993 System of National Accounts, among
others.
Classifications presented through the Registry are:
the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities
(ISIC), the Classifications of Expenditure According to Purpose (COFOG,
COICOP, COPNI and COPP), the Central Product Classification (CPC), and
the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Descriptive profiles
of these and other classifications are also provided at this Website.
The site furnishes on-line access to ISIC in English, Spanish and French.
It also provides access to CPC in English and Spanish. The remaining classifications
are presented in English. Additionally, the registry provides search capabilities
for reading explanatory notes, alphabetical indexes, and correspondences
with other international classifications, as available.
In addition, the Statistical Classifications Section
also provides technical assistance to users of the above classifications
through the Classifications Hotline what may be reached at chl@un.org . In particular,
it provides assistance in the interpretation and coding of the above classifications.
It also disseminates databases and publications containing these classifications
along with relevant tools such as correspondence tables and indexes in
English, and where available, in other official UN languages. The
Hotline also welcomes comments or requests relating to the content, structure
or implementation of these classifications.
Meetings, seminars
27-29 June 2000: Workshop on the Link between
the Balance of Payment and the 1993 SNA , UN-ESCWA, Beirut Lebanon
10-12 July, 2000: United Nations Expert
Group Meeting to Review the Draft Manual on Statistics of International
Trade in Services, to be conducted and hosted by UNSD, New York, USA
12-13 July, 2000: Meeting of the Task Force on Statistics
of International Trade in Services (convener: OECD), hosted by UNSD, New
York, USA
21 September 2000: Workshop on Economically
active population, Employment, Unemployment and underemployment, (ESCWA
Region), Cairo, Egypt
20 24 November
2000: UN Statistics Division and UNECA joint workshop on implementation
of the 1993 SNA with special emphasis on the Household Sector, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia
27 November 1 December 2000: UN Statistics Division
and UNECA joint workshop on the International Classification, Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia
Editorial Note
SNA News and Notes is a bi-annual information service of the ISWGNA prepared
by United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). It does not necessarily
express the official position of any of the members of the ISWGNA (European
Union, IMF, OECD, United Nations and World Bank)
SNA News and Notes is published in four languages (English, French, Russian
and Spanish) and can be accessed on the internet: http://www.un.org/Depts/unsd
Correspondence including requests for free subscriptions should be addressed
to: UNSD, Room DC2-1720, New York, NY 10017; tel.:+1-212-963-4854,
fax:1-212-963-1374, e-mail: sna@un.org
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