Energy Statistics Newsletter

United Nations - Department of Economic and Social Affairs- Statistics Division- Energy Section

Issue Number 1, August 2005

Dear Readers,

Welcome to the first issue of the United Nations Energy Statistics Newsletter!

The aim of the newsletter is to update you on activities and developments of the United Nations Energy Statistics Section, part of the United Nations Environment and Energy Statistics Branch, United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD). The newsletter will cover recent workshops, publications, technical cooperation activities, as well as short reviews on topical issues. Furthermore, the Market Brief will give you an overview and brief insight of trends of specific markets. We hope that you find the newsletter useful and thank you for your support.
Please be sure to register as a subscriber and to submit any comments or suggestions to energy_stat@un.org.

In this Issue:

Features:

§ Energy Statistics in the 2005 United Nations Statistical Commission

§ The Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI)

§ The Ad-hoc Energy Expert Group Meeting

Special feature:

§ Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A new commodity on the rise?

Publications

United Nations Energy Statistics News

§ The 2003-2004 data collection on Energy Statistics

Market Brief: Electricity Analysis, 1990-2002

Calendar : workshops, seminars and future events

Editorial notes

Energy Statistics takes precedence in the 2005 United Nations Statistical Commission

In the wake of rising oil prices and increasing fuel consumption and demand, energy statistics is becoming increasingly more important. Not surprisingly, following the report prepared by Statistics Norway in preparation for the 36^th Session of the UN Statistical Commission, energy statistics is catching international interest. Indeed, during the Statistical Commission in 14-15 March 2005 in New York, many countries and international organizations discussed the wide variety of technical and other issues addressed, including: the need for closer link to energy policy; the need for better coordination and harmonization between the different agencies collecting energy statistics at national and international level; and methodological development.

The importance of energy statistics for all countries from both a socio-economic and environmental perspective was acknowledged as participants recognized the need to meet the international demand for energy statistics whilst limiting the reporting burden on countries. During the meeting, it was recognized that there is a greater need for better integration between energy statistics with other statistical systems especially those linked to economic development, environment and national accounts.

In addition, the need to assist, in particular developing countries, in strengthening their capacity to produce energy statistics and to better meet the challenges presented by the liberalization of energy markets, energy efficiency, confidentiality and new forms of energy is now paramount.

The importance of energy statistics for the compilation of greenhouse gas emissions inventories, particularly in the context of the Kyoto Protocol was emphasized as well as the issues surrounding the importance of quality energy statistics in terms of timeliness, coverage, reliability and transparency.

The Statistical Commission stressed that the exchange of best practices is an important way forward in improving the quality of energy statistics and re-emphasized that energy is of vital importance in the arena of statistics. The session concluded with the agreement that an ad-hoc group meeting should be organized to discuss the next steps and the issues in greater detail.

For further information on the Statistical Commission or the Ad-hoc Energy Expert Group meeting, please visit: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/Workshops/default.htm

The Ad-hoc Energy Expert Group Meeting

On 1-4 March 2005, the thirty-sixth session of the Statistical Commission, in reference to agenda item 4 (a) Programme Review: energy statistics, requested the United Nations Statistics Division to organize an Ad-hoc Expert Group meeting on energy statistics.

Seven countries: Canada, China, Denmark, Norway, South Africa, USA and Republic of Yemen and five organizations: Eurostat, International Atomic Energy Agency, International Energy Agency, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and United Nations/DESA participated.

The main objective of the ad-hoc energy expert working group was to:

i. outline priorities for tackling the issues raised in the program review by Norway on energy statistics;

ii. identify the most appropriate fora to address these issues (e.g. city group, friends of the chair, inter-secretariat working group) including relationships with existing bodies;

iii. report back to the Bureau of the Statistical Commission with an outline of specific mandate and recommendations with timetable.

The main conclusions of the meeting were as follows:

The significance of energy in the society, the economy and the environment creates special requirements towards energy statistics, therefore

There is a need to strengthen official energy statistics and link it better to economic, social and environment statistics both at the national and international level.

To this end,

o The community of energy statisticians have to be brought together;

o Internationally agreed standard concepts, methods and definitions for energy statistics have to be developed on the basis of the existing guidelines and best practices;

o The collaboration of international organizations engaged in energy statistics has to be strengthened;

o Training and capacity building in energy statistics, especially in developing countries, have to be increased.

The meeting recommended to establish:

o a city group on energy statistics to tackle methodological issues; and

o an inter-secretariat working group on energy statistics to coordinate international activities.

The meeting stressed the need for adequate resources for energy statistics both at the national and international level. It emphasized this need in particular in the case of United Nations Statistics Division.

Looking forward: The Ad-hoc Energy Expert Group has concluded with their objectives set out by the Statistical Commission. The report has been put forward to the Bureau of the Statistical Commission which will then take a decision on the means of further work on the area of energy statistics.

For further information about the Ad-hoc Energy Expert Group meeting please visit: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/Workshops/default.htm

The Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI)

Joint Oil-Data Transparency Initiative: Concrete Manifestation of Producer-Consumer Dialogue

The late 1990s saw extremely volatile oil markets, which some observers ascribed partly to inadequate and opaque statistics. The criticism, whether justified or not, has inspired a new look at the availability and reliability of oil data.

Responding to the call from the Seventh International Energy Forum, six major international organizations agreed in June 2001 to launch a six-month data reporting exercise. The Joint Oil-Data Exercise, now known as the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) is currently underway. It is a joint activity launched by the Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (APEC), statistics office of the European Union (EUROSTAT), the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Latin-American Energy Organization (OLADE), the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) aimed to assess the quantity, quality and timeliness of basic monthly oil data and improve the quality and transparency of international oil statistics.

Moreover, JODI is a concrete expression of an international dialogue, linking both the oil producer and consumer, in the attempt to harmonize and improve oil statistics, which in the end offer more transparency for all oil market participants. Indeed, the Statistical Commission this year in March 2005 recognized JODI as a good example of collaboration among countries and international organizations.

Data Transparency is undoubtedly a key element for improving the quality of data. Better data results in better decision-making. This is also applicable to the energy economy where accurate oil data are essential to minimize the price fluctuations in the oil market which result from imbalances in supply and demand.

In terms of progress to date, the six organizations and the Inter-Energy Forum Secretariat (IEFS) are continuing to focus their efforts on the forthcoming public release of the JODI World Database which contains data for more than 70 countries, representing over 90 percent of the world’s total oil production and consumption.

The Review Committee is making solid progress in its assessment of the JODI data quality. Participating countries have already been solicited by the organizations to provide additional information. JODI is making huge progress thanks to participating countries’ willingness and support in this initiative.

For more information about JODI please visit http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/jodi.htm

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: A new commodity on the rise?

With the coming into force of the Kyoto Protocol in February 2005, greenhouse gas (GHG) trading has received significant attention. Many observers predict that GHGs are an emerging commodity that will play a significant role in future energy production. But what is currently traded and what does this mean for the international energy markets?

The basis of all trading is the Kyoto Protocol, the international treaty negotiated under the auspices of the United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The treaty imposes GHG emission reduction targets on industrialized countries and economies in transition that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Signatories have the option to trade emission credits among each other as reduction cost can differ significantly depending on the country’s geography and energy profile. Each country receives an allocation and any excess emission credits can be traded with countries that emitted more than they were allowed to. One GHG emission credit equals to one tonne of CO2 equivalent.

However, the trading under the Kyoto Protocol will only occur between 2008 and 2012 when the signatories are required to reduce their emissions. The current activities have to be understood as a pre-Kyoto phase driven by two developments:

§ Firstly, the Member countries of the European Union have passed on some of their obligations to industrial emitters. The result is the European Trading Scheme (ETS), a cap and trade system that is currently in its first phase from 2005 to 2007. It covers around 12,000 installations in selected sectors accounting for roughly 45% of the European Union’s emissions. Trading of EU Allowances has started in January 2005, but to date only 70 firms with allowances have participated in the trading. It is expected that trading activities will increase during the second phase from 2008 to 2012 when potentially more sectors with more stringent goals have to comply with the scheme.

§ Secondly, the Kyoto Protocol allows for two project mechanisms that can create additional credits. The first type – the so-called Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) – provides an incentive for emission reduction projects in developing countries that are excluded from any commitments. The second type – the so-called Joint Implementation (JI) – allows for similar project activities among countries with an emissions target. The credits that these projects generate can either be used to fulfill a country’s Kyoto obligation or help a European company to comply with the ETS. Generally speaking, these reductions are cheaper and consequently, governments and companies are keen to finance projects or to buy credits for their future compliance. Speculative investors are also entering the market as it is believed that the price of EU Allowances will increase over time. However, none of these credits have been issued yet and it remains to be seen how many of them will be available in 2008 when the trading commences.

These first steps underline that the GHG market is fragmented and to some extend confusing. More importantly, the existence of the commodity depends solely on future public policy decisions. Essentially, most of the current activities are a bet on how the European Trading Scheme and the Kyoto System might evolve. Also, only countries with a reduction obligation will treat it as a tradable commodity. Consequently, GHGs are not a global commodity yet, but the recent activity shows that some players are convinced it will be in the near future.

Article contributed by Martin Berg, a Student Energy Research Fellow at the Center for Energy, Marine Transportation and Public Policy (CEMTPP) at Columbia University. For further enquiries, please email him at mhb2105@columbia.edu

Kyoto Dictionary for the above article

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

· Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol provides an incentive for projects that achieve GHG reductions in Parties to the Protocol without a commitment. CDM projects create additional credits, so-called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), which may be used for compliance with the Kyoto Protocol.

Emissions Trading:

· Article 17 of the Kyoto Protocol allows the Parties with an emissions reduction commitment to trade their Assigned Amounts Units (AAUs) among each other. The UNFCCC is currently finalizing the exact rules and infrastructure for the transfer of AAUs.

European Emissions Trading Scheme

· Cap and trade scheme in two phases from 2005 to 2007 and 2008 to 2012. It currently covers around 45% of the European Union’s GHG emissions. Each installation covered by the scheme receives an “allowance”, based on historic performance and other parameters. Participants can trade European Union Allowances (EUA) among each other. Installations that emitted above their allocation and fail to provide additional EUAs are subject to a penalty.

Joint Implementation (JI):

· Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol provides an incentive for emission reduction or energy efficiency projects amongst Parties with a reduction target. JI is therefore a transaction between countries with emissions reduction targets that achieve “Emission Reductions Units” (ERUs), which can be used for Kyoto compliance.

“Kyoto” Greenhouse Gases (GHG):

· The six GHGs covered by the Kyoto Protocol are: Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O) and Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

Kyoto Protocol:

· International treaty that sets binding targets on the industrialized countries and transition economies that have ratified the treaty. The overall goal is to reduce six GHGs by at least 5 percent below 1990 levels during the 2008-2012 first commitment period. However, individual country targets range from -8 percent to +10 percent.

United Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):

· Basis for international action on climate change. The convention’s goal is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change, but it does not include binding GHG reductions.

Publications

The 2002 ‘Energy Statistics Yearbook’ and the 'Energy Balances and Electricity Profiles’ are now available electronically on our website: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy

· The 'Energy Statistics Yearbook' provides internationally comparable series of commercial energy statistics summarizing world level and regional energy trends. Annual data for 215 countries and areas for the period 1999 to 2002 are presented on production, trade and consumption of energy: solids, liquids, gaseous, traditional fuels and electricity in a series of 38 comprehensive tables. In addition, per capita consumption series are also provided for all energy products. This year we have introduced graphical analysis as an additional feature for

the ease of our readers.

To find out more, please visit our website: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/yearbook/EYB_pdf.htm

· The biennial publication 'Energy Balances and Electricity Profiles' is a unique data source for policy-makers, analysts and companies involved in the energy sector, as it presents an overall picture of the sector, providing detailed data on production, trade, conversion and consumption for fuels utilized in approximately 95 developing countries in four consecutive years 1999-2002. More specifically, the Electricity Profiles provide comprehensive information on the electricity sector, including net installed capacities, thermal power plant input and estimated efficiencies.

To find out more, please visit our website: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/balance/EBEP_pdf.htm

ÊFor monthly energy data on selected commodities such as coal, lignite, natural gas, crude petroleum and electricity, please refer to the United Nations Statistics Division 'Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Online’ that can be found at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/mbs/.

ÊThe Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development: Guidelines and Methodologies, UN is also available from http://www.iaea.org/publications/index.html.

United Nations Energy Statistics News

We are pleased to announce improvements in our publications and other activities.

P We have nearly doubled coverage of countries in the '2002 Energy Balances and Electricity Profiles'. In addition, we have improved layout for a better analysis and comparability of data over a 2 year timeframe. For a sample of the new layout please visit http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/balance/EBEP_pdf.htm

P The '2002 Energy Statistics Yearbook' has additional features. We have introduced graphical presentations and additional explanatory notes as an introduction to almost all our tables. These features should also facilitate the understanding of the data presented in the publication.

P For details of any of the above, please check out our newly designed website which includes bilingual energy classifications and sample of our most up-to-date publications and news. http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/default.htm

P United Nations Energy Statistics Section announces the completion of its internal procedures manual which includes a comprehensive detail of all activities, broken down by process maps and commodity classifications. This tool is aimed to improve transparency and quality of our statistical process from the initial stages of data collection to the final output, or in this case, our publications. For more details, contact the United Nations Energy Statistics Section at energy_stat@un.org.

P Coming soon the 2004 UN Energy Statistics Questionnaires for data collection will be available in Russian and Arabic, in addition to our current English, French and Spanish versions! Please visit http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/quest.htm

The 2003-2004 data collection on Energy Statistics

The 2003 data collection has now concluded. The UNSD questionnaire, covering crude oil, electricity and the main energy fuels, was sent out in October 2004 to more than 150 countries and territories. UNSD has received almost a hundred questionnaires with data, representing an increase in response rates of 61 percent since 2002. However it should be noted that response rates vary strongly by region. The best response rates were from Latin America and the Caribbean, a region for which we obtain additional data from OLADE. UNSD has excellent coverage of Europe and the CIS for which we have a data sharing arrangements with the IEA whereby IEA provides UNSD the data for all the OECD countries plus CIS region.

Despite the improvement in response rates, increased effort and capacity building is still needed, particularly in Africa where response rates are low and the availability of data scarce.

UNSD thanks all responding countries for their important efforts. All validated data will be made available to other national and international organizations, in order to allow for optimal use of the collected data.

Abbreviations to above article

CIS: Commonwealth of Independent States

IEA: International Energy Agency

OECD: Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development

OLADE: Latin American Organization for Energy

UNSD: United Nations Statistics Division

The 2004 Energy Statistics Questionnaire for data collection is now available online at http://unstats.un.org/unsd/energy/quest.htm

Market Brief: Electricity Analysis, 1990-2002

Overview ¹

The world electricity market has grown by 33.8 per cent between 1990 and 2002, accounting for an approximate production growth of 4 million gigawatt-hours (GW-h). The average annual growth rate worldwide during this period was 2.4 per cent. The largest growth has been seen in Asia². This is also reflected by the huge economic growth of the region. During 1990 and 2002, the region’s real GDP grew an average of 3.8 per cent per year. Notably, Africa had an overall electricity market increase of 53 per cent during the observed period.

China and India dominate the region in the energy arena. The two countries combined account for 42 per cent of the total regions’ electricity consumption in 2002. Africa’s electricity consumption also grew significantly during 1990 and 2002. South Africa and Egypt accounted for 65 per cent of the electricity production and consumption for the region. South America has enjoyed a 59 per cent increase in the electricity market. Brazil accounts for 48 per cent of the total electricity market of the region in 2002.

In general, the industry sector and households worldwide, were the principal consumers of electricity accounting for a 44 per cent and 30 per cent of the total consumption respectively between 1990 and 2002. In 1990, these two sectors accounted for 83 per cent of the consumption; however by 2002 this percentage has decreased to 70 per cent. This can be attributed to the shift by countries towards less energy intensive industries and products and to the increase of the widespread use of natural gas for heating and general housing needs as well as to the development of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind.