Report of the Symposium
1.
The Symposium on Global Review of the 2000 Round of Population
and Housing Censuses addressed the question: “When and under what circumstances
do censuses succeed?” It considered problems that have arisen in the current
round of censuses (1995-2004) and solutions to overcome these problems, and it
discussed how these experiences might guide countries in the planning of the
next round of censuses (2005-2014). Discussions focused on several main issues:
strategies for involving stakeholders in census activities; strategies for
choosing among data-collection methods; funding for censuses; adapting new
technologies to census operations; identifying and resolving problems of census
mapping; maintaining census-related activities during the intercensal years;
and methods of evaluating censuses.
2.
Census stakeholders are a large and diverse group of data
users who may be involved in all aspects of census activity. The key
stakeholder groups are government ministries and agencies; provincial,
municipal and local governments; private-sector companies and secondary
distributors of census data; academic researchers; libraries; non-governmental
organizations; media and the general public. Stakeholders help to ensure that
relevant data are collected and produced; that the census is understood and
supported by the public; that census products are useful and accessible; and
that data are of high quality. At the same time, stakeholders have different
needs and priorities, which should be balanced against available resources and
the suitability of the census to meet specific data needs.
3.
Participants stressed the importance of identifying key
stakeholders and prioritizing their needs. Client requests must be consistent
with census procedures in terms of such items as concepts and definitions,
transparency, maintaining confidentiality and so forth. Ongoing discussions
between stakeholders and the census organization are essential, but, according
to a Canadian participant, it is important to keep attention focused on areas
where feedback is critical. Stakeholders may contribute to the cost of
collecting data for their specific requirements, as is the case in Zambia, as
long as the census organization maintains control over census activities. The
role of the media is important in creating positive attitudes towards the
census, although some countries found that the national media tended to focus
on controversial issues. Some topics—for example, HIV/AIDS, illegal activities
and disabilities—are sensitive and may not yield satisfactory results when the
question is first introduced. In Brazil, a question on disability was asked in
the 1991 census. To improve results, data users were consulted early in the
process to help frame a more suitable question in 2000.
4.
The three main sources of demographic and social data are
censuses, household surveys and administrative records. In some ways, the
census is the primary source because it provides a sampling frame for sample
surveys and supplies the population figures that serve as a denominator when
calculating vital rates from a civil registration system. Because censuses are
expensive and complicated to conduct, there is pressure to limit the basic
questionnaire to a few items and
collect more information from a sample of the population. Asking questions on
additional topics from a sample of households during a census is a
cost-effective way to widen the scope of the census and improve data quality.
5.
Participants noted the importance of each country’s assessing
its particular sources of data and identifying the best method for meeting data
needs. When the possibility of linking data from different sources is explored,
the use of the same concepts and definitions in different data-collection
activities was emphasized to ensure reliability and compatibility of data.
Countries with small populations have particular problems in maintaining
confidentiality. Alternatives to the census, such as rolling samples and
population registers, could also be examined. Development of a population
register is a major undertaking and requires reasonably complete registration
of births, deaths and other vital events. It also requires a large investment,
enabling legislation and the support of the population.
6.
Technical expertise and financial assistance from
international organizations have played an important part in census taking for
many developing countries in the past and will continue to be needed in the
future. However, as censuses become more expensive and donor funding declines,
some countries have been unable to hold censuses on schedule. The discussion
centred on identifying new sources of funding, such as public and private
national agencies, and conducting more research on ways to reduce the cost of
censuses. At the subregional level, participants noted the possibility of
coordinating and sharing census activities among groups of neighbouring
countries with similar data needs. For example, census organizations could work
together to develop core census questionnaires; prepare training manuals; share
appropriate data-processing technology; and coordinate dissemination
strategies.
7.
Census technology changes rapidly. When new technology is
adopted, an important consideration is ensuring the integrity and continuity of
existing census systems. Census managers could avoid choosing the newest or
“immature” products, especially if they require extensive pre-testing or if the
requisite documentation is unavailable. A good starting point is to examine the
most recent census and consider what procedures were successful and which ones
could be improved. Census managers agreed on the need for caution about
replacing an approach that has worked well in the past. Making decisions about
adopting new technologies means having technical awareness, a sense of what can
realistically be accomplished, a methodical approach and ample preparation
time. Census managers may also learn a great deal from the experiences of other
census organizations. Some participants questioned whether census organizations
are really adapting new technologies to census taking or whether the new
technologies are changing the nature of the census operation.
8.
Technology can improve the management of census tasks in many
areas, from the use of mobile telephones for better communication in the field
to bar codes on census materials to facilitate and track their movement.
Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR) technology has seen widespread use
during the current census round, but some countries have reported problems with
scanning hand-written characters. Participants noted that even with extensive
training, sufficient supplies and appropriate printers and scanners, ICR
technology can sometimes be difficult to implement. Online dissemination of
census data via the Internet is also becoming popular, although demand for
printed publications is still strong. The Internet may be increasing awareness
of and demand for census data. Another area of census operations that has
benefited from new information technology is data archiving and storage.
9.
Census mapping has also seen rapid advances in technology,
including Geographic Information System (GIS), digital remote sensing and
Global Positioning System (GPS). But many countries still lack up-to-date base
maps, which are crucial for a census-mapping programme. Some cartographic units
underestimated the time and resources required to produce enumeration maps. GIS
technology has widened the scope of census work, and census managers need to
consider what standards of accuracy to apply in the maps they produce for
census operations.
10.
Census organizations in most countries have established
permanent, self-contained cartographic units, but in a few cases, the unit
virtually ceases to exist after enumeration is complete. Maintaining and updating
maps is vital to the success of a census and is necessary to produce a national
master sampling frame for sample surveys. New technology can enhance the
versatility and usefulness of census data; census information can be combined
with underlying base maps, which permit users to generate thematic maps to meet
their own requirements. Participants expressed interest in continuing to share
experience and information on developments in mapping technology through web
linking and other means.
11.
Census-related activities during the intercensal years provide
a smooth transition from one census to another and maintain an institutional
memory. Intercensal activities include providing services to data users;
updating administrative boundary changes; carrying out methodological studies;
maintaining a census library; preserving maps and records; documenting census
activities and keeping copies of all essential census information; promoting a
continuing dialogue with stakeholders; updating the census frame for sampling
and conducting intercensal demographic household surveys. Such activities also
retain and improve the capacity of the census organization to conduct the
census, and they help to create awareness of the availability and usefulness of
census data. Census organizations can use the intercensal period to produce
popular versions of official census reports to make census information more
readily understood by the general public. The intercensal period is also an
ideal time to investigate and test new technologies for interviewing, data
capture, storage and dissemination. Unfortunately, financial constraints often
limit the size and scope of intercensal activities.
12.
Evaluation of census results was the final topic addressed at
the Census Symposium. Participants noted that evaluation and quality management
should be an integral part of the census programme. They agreed that some kind
of evaluation is necessary to identify problem areas and strengths in the
census and that the credibility of the census is improved when evaluation
results are shared with users. A number of evaluation methods have been
developed, including comparing census results with administrative records,
demographic analysis and the post-enumeration survey (PES). The PES is a valuable
tool, but its results can be compromised if maps are inadequate; if the PES is
not independent of the census operations; if probability sampling is not
adhered to; and if the survey is poorly managed or executed. Many techniques
for demographic analysis are also available, such as comparing data from
successive censuses; examining census data for internal consistency; and using
simple indexes of regularity in the age-sex distribution.
13.
Both a PES and demographic analysis may be usefully employed
if resources permit. In some countries, the PES is important because no other
sources of data exist for comparison with the census. If a PES is to be
conducted, and if it is to be successful, it is best conducted as soon as
possible after census enumeration. It is important to maintain operational
independence between the census and the PES, and the scope of the PES should be
modest and manageable. Some participants felt that a country should not
undertake a PES unless it could meet the methodological prerequisites.
14.
Censuses in the foreseeable future will continue to be the
main source of demographic data, particularly for small-area data. The
continuity of census programmes, however, is threatened by the rising costs due
both to increases in population and to the amount of data collected. It is
clear that detailed data on economic and social characteristics of the
population could be more cost-effectively collected through regular household
survey programmes. It is therefore recognized that census planners and managers
would benefit from a serious reconsideration of which topics are essential for
complete coverage on a small-area basis and which can be limited to a sample.
15.
The census is the most expensive data-collection exercise a
country undertakes. However, the data are exploited only on a limited basis,
because of delays in processing the results and the limited access to data by
the public. Use may be limited also because many
people don't know how to use census data or don't know how valuable they can
be. One way of increasing use of census results is to get the public to be
active stakeholders in the census enterprise. Modern technology has
considerably improved the timeliness of data. In addition, publication of
census results, together with metadata, is essential but infrequently
accomplished. Metadata in this formulation is taken to include concepts, sample
frames, editing procedures and assessment of census coverage and quality.
16.
Most census organizations have limited technical expertise for
evaluating the census data quality. Many countries do conduct a PES, but seldom
use the results for adjusting the data or indicating the level of coverage in
the published volumes. Under the circumstances it is important that census
organizations should bring in the technical expertise from outside to undertake
the evaluation of census data. This will require not only sharing the
information with outsiders but also trusting their judgement. A balance needs
to be reached in this area to avoid unnecessary complications and unanticipated
disputes.
17.
The emerging technologies have facilitated census taking.
However, due to limited in-house expertise and poor documentation by the
vendors, in appropriate languages, and, at times, adoption of technologies not
fully developed, there is wastage of time and resources causing unnecessary
delay in the publication of results. To avoid such problems, the Symposium
participants emphasized that there is a need to produce technical guidelines
and to organize training programmes that address these issues and equip
statistical offices to make informed choices in selecting and implementing
appropriate technologies.
18.
The
Symposium on Global Review of the 2000 Round of Population and Housing Censuses
addressed the question: “When and under what circumstances do censuses
succeed?” The Symposium addressed the issues and problems that emerged in the
current census round (1995-2004) and discussed modalities countries have
adopted to overcome some of the challenges faced by the countries in
implementing the census programme. Some of these experiences may serve to guide
census planning by countries that will conduct censuses during the next round
(2005-2014).
19.
The Director of the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD)
introduced the purpose of the Symposium. He emphasized the importance of censuses
in providing a snapshot of the population of a country, complete with its
distribution and socio-economic characteristics. Censuses are the only data
source that can provide small-area data, and censuses provide the basis for
conducting intercensal surveys and activities.
20.
The Director of the Technical and Policy Division of the
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) said she was pleased to cosponsor this
symposium together with UNSD. She emphasized the need for proper and timely
allocation of resources for census taking by both governments and international
agencies. She recognized that, although countries have been able to absorb a
much more substantial part of the census cost, the rising costs of census
taking are putting very heavy burdens on countries’ limited resources. In this
regard, UNFPA is organizing a seminar to discuss census costs to identify
practical measures that can reduce these costs.
21.
In the Symposium, realizing that the population census was the
main source of demographic and social statistics, the focus of the discussion
was mainly on strategies to improve the census methodologies, including
involving stakeholders in census activities, application of technologies,
census-related activities during the intercensal period, census evaluation and
demographic analysis. The application of new technologies in census activities
from beginning to end was discussed. It was apparent that the application of
technology varies considerably among countries and between developed and
developing countries.
22.
Population and housing censuses rely on a large and diverse
group of stakeholders to fulfill the mission of informing citizens, businesses
and governments about the benefits of the census. Many of these stakeholders
are important census data users. Clearly, interest in census activities varies
among stakeholders so that the census organization must categorize them
according to their levels of interests. Stakeholder interests are also different
at various stages of census activities. The involvement of census stakeholders
in all aspects of census activity is crucial to ensuring a successful census
that meets the needs of all data users. The key census stakeholders include
government ministries and agencies, provincial, municipal and local
governments, private-sector companies, secondary distributors, academics,
libraries, non-government organizations, media and general public.
23.
The quality of census data is of major interest to stakeholders.
It is therefore extremely important that statistical offices make every effort
to involve stakeholders at all stages—from content determination to
dissemination—to assure quality. Throughout the process it is important to
continue to provide feedback to stakeholders on decisions made and the
rationale for incorporating or not incorporating changes.
24.
Feedback gathered during consultation is then analysed and
evaluated with internal partners in light of financial and operational
constraints and other related considerations. Priorities are discussed, options
are eliminated and viable alternative solutions are proposed. In order to
facilitate consensus-building, major data users and stakeholders are regularly
kept informed on the progress of the planning activities (content or
dissemination) in various presentation forums. Thematic meetings regrouping
stakeholders from different sectors have proven to be a very effective means of
facilitating consensus as participants get a direct opportunity to expose and
discuss their diverging views and underlying rationale.
25.
Ongoing consultation on data needs will ensure that relevant
data are produced. Consultation and testing activities are essential to a user-oriented
dissemination strategy, maximizing the accessibility and interpretability of
census data. Consultation with stakeholders also gains support from
respondents in collection activities.
Moreover, testing on the content of the questionnaire also contributes
to the success of the census. Stakeholders’ involvement in the census is not
only required to assess the socio-economic conditions in the country but is
also a critical element in stimulating broad public debate on social issues, an
essential element of democracy.
26.
Most statistical organizations established advisory committees
to gather advice on topics such as demography, social conditions and health.
Since many members of these advisory committees often come from the academic
community, this forum has proven to be an effective means of getting feedback
from this group. During the content determination stage, the census should also
work closely with international organizations, to share professional expertise
and to promote common concepts and practices to maximize the comparability of
socio-economic data.
27.
Once it has been determined that the census is the best way to
fulfill a specific data need, all potential new questions and changes to the
questionnaire must be carefully tested with respondents before being adopted.
The role of the national statistical office is to produce statistical
information relevant to current and emerging needs of data users. In order to reach the different groups of
stakeholders, many different consultative mechanisms should be adopted.
28.
The Symposium focused on the value of involving stakeholders
at every stage of census planning and implementation but noted that engaging
stakeholders may raise problems as well. Sometimes stakeholders disagree with
each other, and it is often not possible to forge a consensus. This may be
particularly true when political issues are involved. While efforts to bring
ownership of census operations to the stakeholders may bring positive results,
the census organizations should also be very cautious in working closely with
stakeholders that want to have a greater role in the census. For example, local
governments and communities often want to have greater control in the
recruitment of enumerators and management of census field operations.
29.
Any consultation process creates expectations regarding the
amount of influence participants have in determining the content of the census
questionnaire or defining the characteristics of a dissemination programme.
Thus it becomes extremely important to set up a framework whereby stakeholders’
attention gets focused on specific points of discussion. This can be done
during the consultation process or in the consultation guide provided to
participants prior to the sessions.
30.
User expectations can also be managed by positioning the
census in the context of the overall statistical programme as one means of
fulfilling users’ needs. Such consultation activities will invite users to
discuss all of their socio-economic data needs pertaining to census themes.
This will maximize the full range of socio-economic data sources to meet users’
needs, instead of focusing on the census as the sole means of satisfying their
current and future data needs. This should lower users’ expectations regarding
the extent to which they can influence the content of one specific element of the
statistical programme.
31.
Census data collection activities depend heavily on the
willingness and cooperation of respondents. In order to make the public aware
of the importance of participating in the census, it is essential to establish
a public communications programme. This programme should emphasize the measures
being adopted by the census organization to protect the privacy and
confidentiality of the information provided. Many census stakeholders,
including central and local governments, as well as other organizations,
provide voluntary support to promote the census. The media also play a very
important role in promoting the census to the public.
32.
The advice of
stakeholders is essential in planning the dissemination strategy. This ensures
that the dissemination strategy and the products and services suit the needs of
data users. Some stakeholders also become critical partners in disseminating
census data to ensure the widest possible use. When planning the components of
the census products and services line and output media, the range of users’
abilities to access and use the information has to be taken into consideration
because of the diversity of data users. Users should also be consulted on such
other dissemination issues as user-friendliness of the products, searching and
indexing features, pricing and licensing conditions and accessibility of the
metadata (i.e., information about the data).
33.
Once the data
are ready to be released, partnerships formed with numerous key sectors are
vital to wider dissemination of census data. Public and private-sector
organizations, libraries and the media are critical in ensuring broad
dissemination. Dissemination partnerships should also be established with
provincial and local statistical focal points. Partnerships with secondary and
elementary schools as well as with school boards to encourage classroom use of
census data will also be beneficial.
as
sources of demographic and social statistics
34.
It is well known that there are three main sources of
demographic and social statistics: censuses, household surveys and
administrative records. These three data sources should complement each other
as part of an integrated programme of statistical data collection which
provides a comprehensive source of statistical information for policy
formulation, development planning, administrative purposes, research and for
commercial and other uses. It is essential that countries develop a national
statistical data collection programme that determines which particular data
sources are most appropriate for collecting certain statistics.
35.
A population and housing census is necessary to provide data
to meet data users’ needs, provide a sampling frame and other population
figures for household surveys, and also provide the base population needed in
the computation of vital rates for data produced from a civil registration
system. While population censuses are the ideal method of providing information
on size, composition and small-area distribution of the population, including
their demographic and socio-economic characteristics, population censuses are
also the most extensive, complicated and expensive statistical operation for
any country to undertake.
36.
The only alternative to conducting periodic population
censuses is having a population register. However, for many countries,
development of a population register is a long way off, since the prerequisite
for developing such a register is having a complete civil registration system.
Therefore, for the foreseeable future, in most developing countries, there is
no substitute for continuing to conduct periodic population censuses. Countries should also maintain a continuing
programme of household surveys to obtain information that cannot be collected
through censuses. In addition, efforts should be continued to improve the civil
registration and other administrative records to fill the data gaps.
37.
To keep the census operation cost-effective, census
organizations are usually under strong pressure to limit census questionnaires
to the most basic items. Nevertheless, the topics to be covered in the census
should be determined upon balanced consideration of (1) needs of data users in
the country; (2) availability of information on the topics from other data
sources; (3) national and international comparability; (4) willingness and
ability of the public to give adequate information on the topics; and (5)
available resources for conducting the census.
38.
Many countries carry out a sample enumeration in conjunction
with the census to collect more detailed information on a separate
questionnaire (long form). Collecting data on additional topics from a sample
of population or households during the census operation is a cost-effective way
to broaden and deepen the scope of the census and improve the quality of data
collected.
39.
The household survey is the second main data source, and it is
the most flexible of the three data sources. Many countries have instituted a
continuing survey programme, which includes periodic surveys and ad hoc surveys
to meet specific statistical data needs. Although ad hoc surveys may satisfy
immediate purposes, they do not ordinarily provide a framework for a continuing
database and time series. Continuing periodic surveys, on the other hand, are
normally carried out to investigate a highly important phenomenon that needs to
be monitored frequently. Other advantages of a continuing household survey
programme include the opportunity for capacity-building and increasing the
cost-effectiveness of the available resources.
40.
An adequate sample survey design is usually possible only with
the availability of detailed population or household lists, enumeration area
maps, and various control figures or other inputs which can be obtained only
from a census. In this sense, the census is the major source for preparing a
survey sample design.
41.
The third data source is administrative records. The
statistics compiled from various administrative processes can be very valuable
to the overall national statistical system. Many social statistics are produced
as a by-product of these administrative processes. The reliability of the
statistics depends upon the completeness of the administrative recording
process and the reporting system. Unfortunately, in many developing countries,
administrative records are not well developed. Administrative records are often
limited in content and do not usually have the adaptability of household
surveys or censuses from the standpoint of concepts or subject detail. While
the administrative processes are continuing for the purposes of record keeping
and administration, the compilation of statistics is secondary.
42.
One of the most important
administrative records is a civil registration system. Civil registration is a
major foundation for a legal system for establishing the rights and privileges
of individuals in a country and the main source of vital statistics. However,
in order that vital rates and other demographic indicators can be computed, it
is necessary that population figures be available as a denominator, which
normally can be provided only from censuses or complete registers.
43.
A reasonably complete civil
registration system can further be developed into a population register system,
which can provide demographic and social statistics of the population in a
defined area. A population register system maintains central databases of every
individual in the country that are continuously updated when there are changes
in the characteristics of the individual. Countries that have established a
central population registry (CPR) develop a unique personal identification
number (PIN) for each individual.
44.
Development of a population register should not begin
until the country achieves a reasonable completeness in the registration of
births, deaths and other vital characteristics. In addition, developing a population register is not a short-term
project. It requires a large investment and must be supported by the population
at large, with established legislation, infrastructure and national budget. The
use of the register for other purposes, including maintaining public security,
will result in the lack of cooperation from the general population.
45.
Once such a system is established, the need to conduct the traditional
decennial census becomes less important, since the country can carry out a
register-based census. It is important to note, however, that only the
information that is recorded in the register can be compiled and produced as a
register-based census. The flexibility of asking about emerging issues is no
longer available as in the case of a traditional census. Except for a few countries with relatively small
populations, no developing country has a comprehensive population register
system.
46.
Technical cooperation and assistance from multilateral
agencies have played a major role in the success of past censuses. Given the
limited budgets available and the limited capacity in many national statistical
offices, there is a continuing need for such cooperation and assistance. New
sources of funding will need to be tapped, including greater involvement of
non-profit foundations and the private sector. Yet from both a supply and
demand perspective, census data are largely a public good. So for the
foreseeable future international technical and financial assistance for census
taking will be required to complement national inputs.
47.
Developing countries are at different levels of statistical
capability, and this is reflected in the quantity and quality of data they
produce. Some countries lack financial resources and have limited human
resource capacities, especially technical and managerial, compounded with
institutional weaknesses. The high and growing cost of censuses, coupled with
shrinking public-sector budgets in many developing countries, has posed a
serious question about the future of censuses. Reduction in funding for
international development assistance, which in the past has been a major source
of funding for censuses, has exacerbated the situation.
48.
Several countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, have
postponed their censuses, thereby increasing the interval of time since the
previous census to more than 10 years. Other countries have secured funding at
a very late stage in their census preparations, while others are experiencing
funding gaps. Funding delays and uncertainty almost inevitably lead to delays
in data processing and affect the range and quality of census results.
49.
Censuses need to be more cost-effective. The time is ripe to
consider cost-saving strategies, including coordinating international census
data requirements; sharing of experiences between countries; and sharing of
selected census activities among groups of neighbouring countries with similar
data needs. This might include having a common census year, absolute minimum
core questionnaires, sharing of questionnaires, manuals, training, data
processing, analysis and dissemination activities. It still requires
considerable technical and financial support from the international community.
UNFPA, in collaboration with UNSD and other partners, has supported a number of
workshops to promote this strategy.
50.
Several countries stressed the importance of applying
appropriate technologies as a way to make the census cost-effective,
particularly in reducing the time to disseminate the census results. However,
there are differing opinions as regards whether national census organizations
should apply a cost-recovery policy in providing census results to data users.
Some countries stated that cost recovery gives census organizations a bad
reputation. Others suggested that cooperation with different line ministries
(e.g., survey and mapping agency, government printing service, press and media
organizations) might also help in reducing census costs.
51.
For more than three decades UNFPA has played a leadership role
in supporting census programmes in developing and transition countries.
However, with competing demands on its limited resources, coupled with reductions
in core income over the past five years, supporting countries’ census-taking
activities has become ever more difficult. Funding constraints have seriously
affected the 2000 census round, especially in the least developed countries.
52.
UNFPA continues to play a pivotal role in helping to
mobilize resources for censuses in most developing countries. Donors are
conscious of the critical need for census data for many purposes and of the
consequences of not having such data. Sometimes there is donor fatigue with the
idea of having to support yet another census. The amounts requested from donors
are often relatively large in relation to their budgets for particular
countries. In many cases, requests to donors for support for their censuses are
received late and the budget is overly ambitious.
53.
Developing countries need the requisite skills to
negotiate with, and coordinate, a large number of donors. They also need to
make an early start in trying to bridge the budget gap between what resources
are available from the government and the estimated census costs. Moreover,
donor guidelines on what they are prepared to fund can give rise to costing
distortions and inefficiencies. Thus some donors will support the purchase of
expensive technology but are not able to meet local costs of a census.
54.
In order to avert a funding crisis and ensure future
stability, there is a need to systematically assess funding problems that have
arisen in the current census round and to conduct research into census costs and
operational methods to determine what practical measures can be taken to reduce
costs. In addition, much effort needs to be made by line ministries (as
stakeholders) to support the national statistical offices in making the case to
the government for securing funding support for national censuses.
International agencies who use national census data for a variety of purposes
should also provide support for censuses.
55.
In choosing the appropriate technology, census planners need
to acquaint themselves with the state of the art, at both national and
international levels. They should preferably travel to comparable countries
that have recently used methods and technology that may be of interest. In
deciding the parameters for a new census, one should look first at the
preceding census. What worked well and what could be improved? If an approach
was satisfactorily applied the last time, the arguments to replace it with
something else need to be twice as strong.
56.
The conditions under which censuses are conducted differ
greatly between countries. Technical awareness, a sense of the realistic, a
methodical approach, and plenty of preparation time are the principal
requirements for census planners. Census technology changes much more rapidly
than the underlying statistical methods and principles. As new technologies are
developed and become available, census managers must provide the balance needed
in making difficult decisions between the commercially available off-the-shelf
products, keeping in mind the proper role and function of census organizations.
New technology should never endanger, and if possible should reinforce, the
continuity of existing systems.
57.
In order to be successful, a new information technology (IT)
project should be part of the wider process and related organizational changes
rather than an end in itself. Census managers are in charge of the census
process and should not be in charge of the development and implementation of
wider IT projects. This is a focus that often gets lost as a large IT project
develops. When considering the technological options before them, census
offices face a number of questions, including how to make an informed choice in
selecting appropriate technology; how to maintain the integrity of the existing
statistical and census systems; how to deal with the option of outsourcing and
management of outsourced tasks; and how to deal with confidentiality concerns.
58.
Even for countries that have a solid technology management
process in place, it is still a challenge to choose appropriate technologies to
lead to a successful census project.
Generally, it is best to avoid application of new or “immature”
technologies, because new and emerging technologies are notoriously difficult
to assess in terms of when, or if, they will mature and become mainstream
products. Learning from the experience of other countries that have adapted the
technology for similar applications and comparing their results can be very
helpful. Carefully inspecting the adaptations necessary to operate in another
environment can make the difference between success and failure during
implementation.
59.
A population and housing census differs in many respects from
day-to-day statistical work. It may be necessary to recruit professional
management, experienced in dealing with large but temporary organizations. A
census operation requires efficient communication between thousands of persons,
as well as procurement and storage of a large variety of items, most of which
have to be distributed to all parts of the country, and then recollected.
Recent developments in mobile telephone technology (cellular phones) have made
person-to-person communication easier, even in countries with extensive and
reliable fixed-line networks. But complete mobile coverage has not been
accomplished in most developing countries.
60.
Improved computer software and wide availability of personal
computers (PCs) have made managing the movement of goods much easier.
Bar-coding is the most common example of automated information collection and
tracking technology. Using bar codes instead of printed numbers has advantages
in avoiding transcription errors and speeding up processing. At the point where
the materials are sent out, the codes will be scanned, allowing automatic
update of a database of items forwarded. The same process can be used to
maintain a database of items retrieved from the field.
61.
The current census round has seen the breakthrough of
intelligent character recognition (ICR) technology. Nearly all developed and
many developing countries are applying imaging technology through scanners and
recognition software for their censuses in the 2000 round. ICR offers a promise
of greater efficiency but requires elaborate pre-testing before using it. The
fundamental problem is still recognizing the poor hand-written characters,
which have made some countries limit the automatic recognition to marks or
numeric digits only.
62.
Experiences from countries using this technology show that the
ICR process does not always work as smoothly as anticipated. At a recent
meeting among countries in the ESCAP (UN Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific) region, some countries reported problems of varying
degrees in their data capture using this technology. The Symposium agreed that
despite the problems encountered, scanning technology has helped in speeding
the census process. The application of ICR in censuses has certainly not become
an off-the-shelf technology; rather it requires careful design and extensive
pre-testing. The Symposium concluded that ICR technology is still not a mature
field and is due to change significantly over the next five to ten years. Census managers should carefully scrutinize
proposals for new applications of this technology over the next several years.
63.
Census data entry is a potential candidate for outsourcing,
since it is a one-time high-volume application. In outsourcing the ICR
application, it may be advantageous to contract only one company to print the
questionnaires and capture the information to avoid ambiguity of responsibility
if scanning problems occur. It should be noted that outsourcing brings
responsibilities of contracting and monitoring that also require resources.
Quality assurance, which is a major consideration in any census, becomes even
more crucial if outside contractors are involved. Controlling outsourced work
requires different kinds of skills for census managers. In a census operation,
one may end up in a situation where the contractor is in control, since the
census organization, even though unhappy with the services provided, cannot
afford to turn away. The better approach will be to make the outsourced company
understand the mutual benefits they will obtain if the project succeeds.
64.
Whereas in the previous census round the use of the Internet
for data collection was still unusual, attention has recently been focused on
the Internet as a gateway into an increasing number of homes. Using “push”
technology, it is possible to deliver a uniquely identified electronic
questionnaire to each Internet-connected household, possibly already pre-filled
with basic data obtained from the civil register. Several problems that hold
back electronic data collection from households include authenticity;
incomplete coverage; bias (Internet access is more common in affluent and
younger households); unstructured address system; fraud; and security of the
information.
65.
Despite these difficulties, several countries, including
Switzerland, the United States of America and Singapore, have allowed
electronic responses during the 2000 round of censuses. Since it is unlikely
that printed questionnaires could be abandoned soon, census data collection via
the Internet requires seamless integration of the two data streams. Several participants
raised the use of hand-held computer devices as new and promising technology
that needs to be further investigated for the next round of censuses.
66.
While printed publications remain important, online
dissemination via the Internet has become more and more in demand. The
capability of a statistical organization’s web site is becoming even more
important. Statistical and census organizations nowadays are not only assessed
on the quality and timeliness of the printed information, but also on the effectiveness
of their web presence. While data users expect statistical organizations to
make full use of new media, there continues to be a substantial demand for
paper publications. One of the dangers of this increase in efficiency is to
lose the quality control and coherence brought by more careful management that
was established in the old publication process.
67.
Information dissemination on non-rewritable high-capacity
media also remains an important delivery channel, especially for massive data that
are not highly time-sensitive, such as most census information. Censuses
nowadays routinely result in the production of many CDs, and the first DVD
(digital video disk) products of much higher capacity have appeared.
68.
There have been concerns with the privacy of microdata and the
potential inference of private information from direct electronic access to
census information. A delicate balance must therefore be established between
the ability to provide detailed electronic information products, which can be
analysed and correlated with other diverse information, and at the same time to
provide adequate protection for the privacy and security of the raw data
sources.
69.
For the 2000 round of population and housing censuses,
most statistical offices have had the strategic advantage of an accumulated
knowledge base as well as maps and materials inherited from the past censuses.
During the past decade, the scope and methodologies of census mapping have also
been greatly affected by rapid advancements made in Geographic Information
System (GIS), digital remote sensing and Global Positioning System (GPS).
However, implementation of cartographic activities for the current census round
has been fraught with numerous challenges and problems.
70.
Viable and
self-contained cartographic units and services have been established in most
countries. But in several countries these units are still not maintained on a
continuous basis. In a few countries these units even become practically
non-existent after the census enumeration. Factors that seem to have adversely
affected the sustainability and technical capacities of cartographic units are
the high staff turnover, further depletion of technical capacities, and
non-availability of adequately qualified personnel to fill positions. Countries
should take remedial measures and strategies to sustain cartographic units and
redress staff inadequacies by the formulation of a comprehensive cartography
programme right at the outset. A cartographic component should be included in
the budget, and a work programme for individual sample surveys and other
intercensal data-collection activities should be established.
71.
Availability of appropriate base map and resource materials at
affordable costs is also crucial to successful implementation of the
census-mapping programme. Lack of appropriate base maps still poses a serious
constraint in developing countries, mainly because the available maps are
outdated and lack coverage on adequate scales. They are often either out of
stock or available in limited quantities and contain parameters that are not
fully matched with those adopted in the new technologies (GIS and GPS). To
rectify these deficiencies, countries have to carry out intensive field-mapping
exercises consuming a considerable amount of resources and time. Some countries
adopted good practices by formulating cost-effective and area-specific
strategies of field mapping based on the assessment of gaps and deficiencies in
available base maps.
72.
In many developing countries, implementation of pre-census
cartographic activities, including the production of enumeration maps, has
often experienced delays, due to the unrealistic assessment of time, manpower
and resources required, as well as because of lack of support from local
administration. To avoid such delay, it is necessary that countries carry out a
thorough assessment of the field-mapping requirements, closely monitor the
progress rates and motivate field staff to work according to plan.
73.
To meet the operational requirements of household
surveys, a national master sampling frame should be developed based on a
correct census frame and reliable population estimates from the census final
totals. The enumeration area (EA) frame
should be developed to be comparable with the past census frame, capable of
producing data for smaller areas, flexible to produce data for various systems
of administrative and statistical areas, suitable for sample surveys and other
data-collection activities, and compatible with GIS development requirements.
The census frame also needs to be harmonized with other systems of social and
political subdivisions by establishing realistic and commonly used place names
with the help of local administration.
74.
Automated mapping has been adopted by many statistical offices
since the previous census rounds but, in many countries, its applications were
limited to production of publication of maps and production of enumeration maps
using computerized mapping systems. The value of census information is enhanced
if it is combined with the underlying base maps, which permit users to generate
thematic maps of their choice.
75.
With rapid advancements in digital mapping and GIS, many
countries have embarked on the development of comprehensive GIS applications.
In many countries, this development has been made possible because of the
involvement of multiple national stakeholders supplemented with external
assistance. Electronic maps have become indispensable and cost-effective tools
for a wide range of operations in censuses and statistics. The main problems
encountered in developing GIS to produce census enumeration maps are the lack
of up-to-date base maps, lack of trained staff and the high cost. Other problems are coping with the large volumes
of data needed to depict geographic information and choosing effective storage
and data manipulation formats and standards.
The industry is still changing algorithms and technologies for storing
and manipulating large-scale GIS data.
76.
The use of GIS technology for producing census enumeration
maps should be planned with sufficient lead time, involving other national
stakeholders and potential GIS data users. In addition, application of GIS has
created a new dilemma for census managers since it has widened the scope of
census work itself. Statistical and census organizations need to decide how
much work in correlating base map information, physical structures, road
networks, and the like are appropriate for a statistical/census organization,
and how much should be left to others. It is important to note that the
development of GIS is a long-term process and therefore should be implemented
in a progressive manner.
77.
Outsourcing of census mapping/GIS projects has not become
a common practice, especially in developing countries, due to inadequacy of
resources and non-availability of competent private GIS companies. Experiences
have shown that implementing a GIS project jointly with the private contractors
has not been as smooth as conceived initially. It is necessary to verify
thoroughly the track record of the company, particularly from the clients who
have received services in the past. The contract should clearly indicate the
precise specifications of the final outputs, including explicit deadlines. In
addition, issues relating to copyright and ownership of data must be clearly
spelled out in the contract.
during the intercensal years
78.
Census-related
activities during the intercensal years provide a smooth transition from one
census to another and optimize data utilization. They serve as an important
link between the censuses. They need as much attention and careful planning by
census management as the main census itself. Above all, they help retain and
improve national capacity built at a great cost, in some cases with external
technical assistance.
79.
Activities during the
intercensal years lend continuity to census operations and contribute towards
an effective and efficient programme for the next census. The main activities
during these years include (1) provision of services to data users; (2)
continuous updating of administrative boundary changes as advance preparation
for the next census; (3) carrying out methodological studies; (4) maintaining a
census library containing census publications and electronic products; (5)
preservation of essential maps and records; (6) documenting census activities
in administrative reports and retaining multiple copies of all essential census
instructions, circulars and questionnaires for reference and guidance in the
next census; (7) continuously updating digitized maps for use in the next
census; and (8) updating the census frame for the purpose of sampling.
80.
The Symposium
agreed that in every country there is a
need for a permanent census office, usually within the national
statistical organization, even if it is on
a modest scale. This will go a long way towards maintaining institutional
memory and archiving of census activities after the main census project is
over. It is true that some countries may not be able to afford a census office
on a continuous basis; however, at least a nucleus office should be maintained
retaining essential professional/technical staff and equipment procured for the
census. The absence of a continuous census office may also result in
underutilization of census data.
81.
The rapid build-up
of staff prior to a census and reduction of staff following fieldwork and data
processing are management challenges. These personnel shifts also provide
useful opportunities to management, however. Promising staff members may be
given promotions or more responsibility. Staff members may be rotated so that
they gain experience in a number of census functions. Field staff may be given
assignments in the central office. More time is available for long-term
training of census staff members.
82.
Clearly,
intercensal functions will be more valuable and effective if adequate human and
financial resources are allocated to them.
In this connection, it is important for the census office to maintain
continuing dialogue and cooperation with data users so that a demand for census
data and services exists.
83.
A data users’ service
centre should form an integral part of the census office during the intercensal
period. Its staff may have to deal with a wide range of customers—ministries
and government departments, universities, banks, large companies, and
individuals like members of Parliament, researchers and students. The
census office may develop small-area databases or intranet services to make
census data available to other government departments. For example, census data
have proved valuable for disaster management. A census office library has to be
maintained to hold all published reports and census electronic products. It is
also necessary for the staff to ensure that census publications are available
in leading libraries (including state/provincial libraries).
84.
There is a need to
develop a comprehensive post-census communication strategy. The census
office needs to perform many functions to continue to serve stakeholders during
the intercensal period. It may need to
reprint publications, produce more copies of CD-ROMs and maintain the Internet
site for census data. Apart from the
publication of general census reports, tables and research monographs on
particular topics, simpler and more target-oriented reports or illustrated
folders should be brought out during the intercensal period. Popular versions
of census reports would make census results more easily understood by the
average citizen.
85.
During the
intercensal period, the census office may carry out analytical studies, perhaps
in collaboration with research institutes and other concerned agencies. Census
offices should maintain research and analysis units. The census office will normally wish to carry out methodological
studies of various census procedures or on particular census questions,
concepts or definitions. This period is also an ideal time to investigate and
test new technologies for interviewing and for data capture, storage and
dissemination.
86.
During the intercensal period maps have to be not only maintained but also updated. It is necessary to
monitor boundary changes made by the government from time to time so as to
effect the changes in the maps and records for use in the next census. As far
as possible, countries should digitize all census maps so that changes in the
boundaries of Districts/Communes/Villages/EAs can be updated more efficiently.
If this is not done during the intercensal period, it may give rise to
administrative problems, delays and omission of areas.
87.
Once GIS has been
developed with census data integrated into it, continuous updating of GIS
databases is a must whenever new information is available. During the intercensal
period, it is also necessary to update GIS with information from other sources
of data. Updating the GIS is possible only with coordination and cooperation
among the different data-collecting agencies. The staff should verify the
accuracy of the incoming data before entering them into the system. Missing
information has to be imputed with care in consultation with the agency
concerned.
88.
The intercensal period
should also be used to complete full documentation of the census, including
of the electronic systems, of planning and evaluation activities and of
computer programme specifications. The census data and metadata (information
about the census data) need to be archived for long-term storage and retrieval.
As technology for data storage changes rapidly, it is usually necessary to
maintain microdata from earlier censuses in forms that will permit continued
retrieval. Tapes from mainframe computers deteriorate over time and the data
need to be transferred to other storage devices. The Intergrated Public Use
Microsample (IPUMS) project can provide funding and technical assistance to
census offices for the purposes of maintaining microdata and metadata from
earlier censuses.
89.
Generally an
administrative report is written after the census by the project management. It
incorporates the census methodology and should contain such information as how
concepts were developed, procedures adopted to enumerate the population,
staffing pattern and organizational problems that cropped up and how they were
solved. In addition to the administrative report, it is necessary to keep
copies all of important internal circulars containing instructions, specimen
forms prescribed to monitor and control the census, publicity material and
important correspondence with field agencies. All these will serve as useful
reference material in the successive censuses. For permanent reference, it
would be desirable to store the administrative report and the documents
mentioned in CD-ROM or similar media.
90.
It is generally
agreed that census results should be evaluated and that census evaluation
should be an integral part of the census programme. Owing to the massive nature
and complexity of the census operations it is inevitable that some inaccuracies
arise, including coverage and content errors.
91.
A number of methods of evaluating censuses have been developed
and used by countries. Such methods include demographic analysis, comparing
census totals with figures from other sources and the post-enumeration survey
(PES). Some of these methods can be used as a complementary source or
independently. The choice of which method to use depends on the country’s
preferences and feasibility of the method in terms of data availability and
resource and methodological requirements.
92.
The Symposium agreed that both a PES and demographic analysis
were valuable tools for assessing the quality of a census. Both should be
applied to the extent that resources permit. Such evaluation or analysis is
important for the census organization to identify problem areas or strengths in
the census. The census organization can also increase the credibility of census
results by making available to users the findings of the PES and demographic
analysis.
1. Post-enumeration surveys
93.
The PES is a method commonly used by many countries for census
evaluation. In a PES, an independent and relatively small sample of households
is selected. The census and survey results are then matched to measure the
coverage and/or content errors in the census. There is an assumption that the
survey operations are more fine-tuned compared with the census. The PES
operation normally involves sample design, listing, interviewing, matching, in
some cases field reconciliation and estimation.
94.
PES results have a number of uses. For example, countries have
used the results to uncover defective methodologies or operations, to adjust
census results and to evaluate area frames. Many participants at the Symposium
felt that a PES was an important tool in the evaluation of census results.
Suggestions were therefore made that it should be considered as an integral
component of the census and that a handbook should be prepared on the
subject.
95.
It was, however, stated that census results should be
subjected to evaluation methods in addition to the PES. Others argued that with
adequate quality assurance measures taken during the census, it was not
necessary to carry out a PES in view of resource constraints and failure of
such surveys, mostly in developing countries, in the past.
96.
While a PES can be a valuable tool for evaluating census
results, its usefulness can be compromised if one or more of the following
problems exist: poor cartographic work; lack of operational independence
between the PES and the census; failure to adhere to probability sampling; and
poor management and execution of the survey.
97.
In the discussions which ensued, participants, in addition,
alluded to some problems associated with the PES, such as difficulties in
matching; lack of qualified staff both to design and execute the PES; hurdles
of carrying out the PES to capture special populations such as nomads;
practical difficulties of maintaining independence between census and PES
operations; response burden (because the survey is usually carried out
immediately after the census) and problems of sampling errors.
98.
For a PES, therefore, to serve its useful purpose, it must be
carefully planned and carried out within the operational and statistical
constraints. The following were some of the suggested steps to be taken in
order to make PES results meaningful as a tool of census evaluation: developing
good area and household listing frames; designing good probability samples;
maintaining, to the extent possible, independence between the PES and the census;
harmonizing definitions and concepts used in both the census and the PES; using
qualified and well-trained staff for the PES; keeping the operation as simple
as possible and allocating adequate funds for the survey as part of the census strategic plan.
99.
The Symposium agreed that in most cases PES results should not
be used to adjust census data, but should be made available to users to assist
them in interpreting and utilizing the data. If analysts are confident in the PES
results, they could be used to adjust the base population in making population
projections, as has been done in several countries.
2. Demographic analysis
100.
Census results should also be evaluated by demographic
analysis. A wide range of methods of demographic analysis has been developed.
The age-sex pyramid may be examined for regularities or anomalies. Many simple
indexes of regularity in the age-sex distribution have also been developed.
Many methods of estimation require the use of stable population techniques, but
few national populations currently have constant fertility or mortality levels.
101.
Much can be learned about the quality of the census by
comparing its results with data from previous censuses or from such other
sources as vital registration, civil registration, population surveys or
administrative records. Two censuses may be compared by examining intercensal
cohort survival, for example. The data from a single census can be examined for
internal consistency.
102.
Several computer packages exist for such demographic analysis,
but it is important that experienced demographers apply them in collaboration
with persons knowledgeable about the history and culture of the population
concerned. Careless application of computer programs for demographic analysis
can lead to erroneous conclusions. In some developing countries, adequate
analytical expertise is not available in the national statistical office.
UNFPA/CST’s and the United Nations regional commissions can provide such
expertise if the statistical offices have staff members with sufficient
training to be able to absorb such technical assistance.
103.
It is especially important that thorough analysis of census
data be carried out before they are used for population projections. Particular
attention should be paid to the age group 0-4 years and to recent levels of
fertility (and these two indicators should be consistent with each other, when
taking into account infant and child mortality). The population aged 0-4 and
recent fertility rates are critical data for education and health planning, and
errors in their measurement would greatly reduce the utility of census data.
………………
